STORY: "All the root causes of the Syrian conflict were still there."

:: An analyst explains what's driving the

sudden change in the state of play in Syria

:: Talbisa, Syria

:: Ibrahim Al-Assil, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute

:: Washington, D.C.

:: December 6, 2024

"During the civil war, Assad didn't win the war, but he prevented everyone else from winning. And I think what's happening today, it's not only that there are external pressure by other armed groups, there is also clearly some sort of an implosion inside the regime that's happening." // "Regional powers play a direct and a significant role. In this attack we can definitely highlight the Turkish role in backing different armed groups on the ground, but also there are external players like Russia which offered Assad huge support, especially 2015 onwards. But today Russia does not seem to be as interested in supporting Assad the same way they supported him nine years ago." // "The war in Lebanon was certainly consequential on the Syrian conflict. Hezbollah intervened in 2013 to support Assad, and they played a significant role. Now that factor being taken out of the equation, the situation returned somehow to where it was almost ten years ago with Assad being on the back foot." // "But I think another crucial factor of why Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham was able to push against the Syrian forces is that they have a goal which lacks or when we talk about the Syrian forces, they lack a clear goal of why they are still fighting this war. And that's why we are witnessing some sort of an alliance also between different armed groups that they all agree there is a need to topple Bashar al-Assad'."

:: Aleppo, Syria

:: Hama, Syria

:: File

:: Beirut, Lebanon

:: Talbisa, Syria

:: Aleppo, Syria

Syrian rebel forces said on Friday their lightning advance reached the central city of Homs, which could position the insurgents to topple another town strategic to President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power.

Reuters could not independently confirm the rebels' claim.

The Islamist group, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), made a last call on forces loyal to Assad's government in Homs to defect.

If the rebels capture Homs, they would cut off the capital Damascus from the coast, a longtime redoubt of Assad's minority Alawite sect and where his Russian allies have a naval base and air base.

Syrian state media reported the army was carrying out an operation in the Homs countryside with support from Syrian and Russian air forces, artillery, missiles and armored vehicles. Citing a military source, it said dozens of rebels were killed.

After years locked behind frozen front lines, rebel forces have burst out of their northwestern Idlib bastion to achieve the swiftest battlefield advance by either side since a street uprising against Assad mushroomed into civil war 13 years ago.