By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for March delivery rose 1.2%, to $4.40 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with analysts hopeful that next week's WASDE report from the USDA will show higher targets for U.S. export demand.

--Soybeans for January delivery rose 0.1%, to $9.94 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.4%, to $5.56 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Demand Potential: Next week's WASDE is expected to show only light revisions to U.S. supply and demand, with corn showing the biggest change. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast that the USDA will report corn stocks down roughly 50 million bushels for 2024/25, to 1.89 billion bushels. Export data reported by the USDA has shown stronger flows for corn, and traders have been anticipating that the government will show higher flows for exports. "It seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January," said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group in a note.

Treading Lightly: Grain traders moved cautiously when it came to trading this week, with traders coming back slowly from the holiday while awaiting next week's WASDE report from the USDA. "Almost all week we saw fund position balancing," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. "Given last week's holiday break and next week's WASDE report many simply kept trade to a minimum this week." Friday's results extended the rangebound moves seen throughout the week.


INSIGHT


Running Out of Steam: Traders are speculating over whether strength in the equities markets will translate into an extended rally in commodities this month. "Wall Street seems focused on getting its 'Santa Claus rally,'" said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. "It's going to be interesting how much of that optimism translates into commodity inflation talk in the weeks ahead." Grain futures remain on the low-end of where they've traded in recent years.

Choppy Winter: A tough winter may be in store for crops in the Midwest, with a weak La Niña system expected to allow for volatility throughout the winter months. "La Niña events suggest a volatile winter, temperature-wise," said Jim Roemer of the WeatherWealth newsletter in a note. Seasonably cold weather is expected in the Midwest and U.S. Plains, which may mean a lot of moisture frozen into the soil leading up to the spring. Canada, the Great Lakes and New England are all expected to receive increased amounts of snow heading into next year.

Lame Duck Letdown: A new U.S. Farm Bill--which would provide valuable updates to crop-insurance rates and other details--looks to be unlikely as the lame duck Congress wraps up 2024, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) told local media in Iowa. Grassley said "the best we can hope for between now and Christmas is a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill." That isn't likely to sit well with U.S. farmers, said Zippy Duvall of the American Farmer's Bureau Federation. "The projected two-year drop in net farm income of more than $40 billion dollars demonstrates the seriousness of the overall agricultural downturn," said Duvall.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Tuesday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-06-24 1542ET