By Kirk Maltais
-- Corn for March delivery rose 0.9% to $4.79 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with fund traders taking a delay in Brazil's corn crop as a reason to keep piling into the long side of corn futures.
-- Wheat for March delivery rose 0.2% to $5.47 1/2 a bushel.
-- Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.5% to $10.43 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Put on Notice: Although fund traders are already holding the largest net long position in corn futures since 2022, developments with Brazil's corn crop, which up until now hasn't attracted much attention, have taken center stage.
"Delays to the safrinha crop in Brazil are finally starting to be noticed," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. "Planting of this crop is three weeks behind normal."
The soybean harvest is also behind, Setzer adds, but traders aren't sure if that necessarily means they are in worse shape.
Let the Money Roll In: Fund traders, who are already holding the highest amount of long positions in corn since 2022, continue to pile into the long side of futures, said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. "Corn is finding additional fund-related buying interest as the trend is stronger and crude oil is soaring."
Any counteraction to positive momentum, like a decline in ethanol production, doesn't appear to have fazed traders, Hoops added.
INSIGHT
Tumbling Exports: The amount of wheat being exported out of Russia and Ukraine is markedly lower than this month last year, said Andrey Sizov of SovEcon in a note. The firm forecasts that Russian wheat exports in January will total between 1.8 million metric tons and 2.2 million tons, down roughly 40% from last January's figure of 3.6 million tons.
Ukrainian wheat exports are estimated at 800,000 tons, roughly half of their exports at this time last year.
For both countries, lower supplies of wheat amid weather stress have lowered their export pace, in turn pushing up wheat prices at Russian and Ukrainian ports.
Low Bar: Weak export sales reported by the USDA last week look to continue into this week, according to forecasts from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. They estimate for the week ended Jan. 9 that sales may be again limited, with wheat sales forecast as low as 100,000 metric tons, corn as low as 500,000 tons, and soybeans as low as 300,000 tons.
Lower sales than what were seen in December may be in part because of exporters preparing for uncertainty after President-elect Trump's inauguration, said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group in a note.
Finding a High Point: Stocks of ethanol in the U.S. rose over the 25 million-barrel mark for the week ended Jan. 10, the first time they have gone that high in nearly nine months. The EIA said ethanol inventories for the week totaled 25.01 million barrels.
The last time they exceeded 25 million barrels was for the week ended April 26, 2024, when stocks were 25.49 million barrels. It is an uptick of nearly 1 million barrels from the previous week, which exceeded the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week.
Surveyed analysts generally expected a smaller move in stocks, landing between 23.99 million and 24.63 million barrels.
AHEAD
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.
-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EST Friday.
-- The CBOT and USDA will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with both reopening on Tuesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-15-25 1544ET
