By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for March delivery rose 1% to $4.89 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with grain traders and analysts believing that fund traders are continuing to add long positions.

--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.8% to $10.63 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for March delivery rose 0.1% to $5.54 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Pushing Upward: Corn reversed a drop-off seen yesterday, with traders wondering if the next Commitments of Traders report will show growing long positions in corn among fund traders. "Of keen interest will be the managed money corn long as it approaches historically high levels," said AgResource in a note. The previous report showed net long positions among fund traders of around 293,000 contracts, rising on a tighter supply and demand picture in the U.S.

Happy Thoughts: Soybean futures turned around after starting the morning lower, with the more-positive sentiment that appears to be lifting corn futures also providing support for soybeans. "The correction was short lived as a buy the dip attitude brought the oilseed back up for the day," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Sernatinger characterizes the demand in soybeans as "FOMO hedging," coming ahead of China's Golden Week holiday next week.


INSIGHT


Pondering the Prospects: Attention is turning toward preliminary estimates on farmer's planting plans in 2025. While the USDA's next Prospective Planting report isn't until late March, the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum in D.C. comes next month -- where the USDA releases their first set of estimates for 2025 crops. Corn acres may follow the trend of futures, said Brian Pullam of Linn & Associates. "Corn acres are trending higher, and bean acres are trending lower," said Pullam. "Right now, I would venture to think the average guess on corn acres this spring is somewhere between 93 and 94 million acres, but I have heard some people talk as much as 95 million acres for corn." Pullam estimates U.S. soybean acreage between 82 million and 85 million acres.

Smaller Share: U.S. soybeans took up a smaller share of China's soybean purchases in 2024 than they did the previous year, according to Chinese customs data. China imported a record 105 million metric tons of soybeans last year. Total shipments from the U.S. fell to 22.1 million tons while arrivals from Brazil rose 6.7% to 74.7 million tons - meaning that Brazilian market share for soybeans rose, while the U.S. share fell. Ahead of President Trump's inauguration, market participants speculated over an increased pace of export buying by China, guessing if it was related to fears of tariffs once Trump assumed power, or just higher demand for soybeans for consumption.

Big Movers: Transportation for U.S. grains -- barges, trucks, and railcars -- had strong demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, which the USDA attributed to stronger demand for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat. In its weekly Grains Transportation report, the USDA said that inclement weather seen this month is hampering logistics for grains, but last month all systems were adequate to fulfill demand. "Rail and barge volumes in the fourth quarter were both up from the prior 3-year average," said the USDA. "Additionally, grain vessel loading activity increased in the U.S. Gulf."


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-23-25 1521ET