By Paulo Trevisani


--Corn for July delivery fell 2% to $4.50 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Friday, amid weather concerns as markets wait for Monday's NOPA crush report.

--Wheat for July delivery fell 1% to $6.12 3/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for July delivery fell 1% to $11.79 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Navigating Forecasts: Corn prices lead a general decline in grain futures ahead of Monday's NOPA crush report as markets brace for hot and dry conditions across growing regions in the U.S. Forecasts have been pointing in different directions, though. "The market has gone back and forth in recent days as traders try to gauge which forecast is correct," AgResource said in a report. "It's Mother Nature that's become key," for grain markets from now on, adding volatility risk, AgResource said.

Hot and Dry: The weather outlook raised concerns "that a new Central US weather pattern has emerged--that could continue into July," AgResource said, arguing it may put a floor under grains futures. Those forecasts will prevent large scale CBOT selling, AgResource said.


INSIGHT


La Niña Effect: The approach of La Niña and the end of El Niño weather conditions may have different impacts on U.S. crops, said Terry Reilly of Marex. The effect "might be felt hardest for soybeans during the critical August development period, as the corn crop will already be made by the end of July." In South America, bad forecasts for Argentina and southern Brazil may have an impact on planted area, Reilly said.

Corn Ethanol: Brazil has historically made nearly all of its ethanol out of sugar cane. However, for the season that started in March it has produced 338 million liters of the fuel using corn instead. That is a 29% increase from a year earlier, according to data released Friday by the country's sugar and ethanol trade group Unica. In the last half of May, the year-over-year increase was 50%, with corn representing 16% of Brazil's total ethanol production, according to Unica. Despite the increase in corn ethanol, Brazil's total production of the fuel declined 0.2% to 2.12 billion liters in the second half of May compared with a year earlier.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The CBOT and USDA will be closed in observance of Juneteenth. Both will reopen on Thursday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-14-24 1528ET