By Kirk Maltais
-- Soybeans for January delivery fell 0.4% to $9.85 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday with trading volume low as Brazil continues to receive supportive weather for its huge crop.
-- Wheat for March delivery fell 0.1% to $5.47 3/4 a bushel.
-- Corn for March delivery rose 0.1% to $4.33 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Dominating the Conversation: Grains finished mostly flat Monday as trader enthusiasm was seen as underwhelming, said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note.
"This morning, CBOT ag [is] coming in weaker as traders trickle back after an extended weekend," Flynn said. "There's not much for the market to sink its collective teeth into ... [the] thesis remains that chart-based resistance holds without a quick shift to adverse weather in South America."
Stronger Dollar: Many commodities caught pressure from strength in the U.S. dollar index. The WSJ USD Index was up 0.6% in response to the latest round of tariff threats made by President-elect Donald Trump, who stated this weekend that he would impose 100% tariffs on countries that attempt to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.
This combined with other tariff threats on trade partners including Mexico and Canada kept traders on edge.
"We expect commodity prices to be under pressure in 2025 from current levels, driven by abundant supply and U.S. dollar strength," said BMI in a note.
INSIGHT
All Bets Are Off: Plans to institute tariffs on goods from trade partners around the world have upended the outlook for commodities in 2025. Analysts are unsure of what proclamations President-elect Donald Trump will actually follow through with and what the motives are for threatening these tariffs.
"While Donald Trump initially suggested tariffs were going to be used to raise tax revenue and incentivize re-shoring, they appear to be increasingly tied to achieving broader aims, including immigration restriction, drug trafficking control and military spending from trade partners," said European banker ING in a note.
Off Week: Export inspections of U.S. corn for the week ended Nov. 28 fell from both this time last week and last year, said the USDA.
In its latest weekly report, corn export inspections totaled 935,859 metric tons for the week, down from 1.01 million tons last week and down from 1.18 million tons from this time last year. Year to date, the USDA said corn export inspections remain ahead of last year's pace, with 2024-25, inspections totaling 11.07 million tons, up 31% from 2023-24.
Sentiment around U.S. corn demand has been improving, said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note.
"U.S. corn demand is ahead of schedule for both ethanol and exports," she said, questioning if this month's WASDE report from the USDA will show that increased demand.
New Flash Sale: The USDA reported a new flash sale of U.S. soybean exports to China, with 134,000 metric tons sold for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year.
The new sale did little to derail the lower sentiment seen in soybean futures, coming as grain traders watch South American crop production and rainfall there supports strong crop development.
"Weather in South America continues to be pretty favorable with large South American production estimates offsetting the strong demand we continue to see for U.S. corn and beans," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note.
AHEAD
-- Hormel Foods Corp. is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings report before the stock market opens on Wednesday.
-- The EIA is due to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-02-24 1606ET
