By Kirk Maltais
--Soybeans for January delivery fell 1.9% to $9.88 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar index again climbing as inflation fears resurface.
--Corn for December delivery fell 1.8% to $4.19 a bushel.
--Wheat for December delivery fell 1.7% to $5.31 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Not Letting Up: The WSJ U.S. dollar index pressed CBOT grains to the downside as it has now gotten stronger every day for the past week. "The strength in the U.S. Dollar continues to be a thorn in the grain markets side," said Brian Pullam of Linn & Associates. "A renewed trade war remains a concern for exports, but for now, our seasonal window remains open and the rally in the dollar is making U.S. grains look less competitive."
Improving Scenario: The outlook for Russia's wheat crops has improved in the past few weeks, with the winter crop being planted faster than originally thought with weather supporting better-than-expected yields, said SovEcon in a note. The Black Sea agricultural research firm now forecasts 2025 wheat production at 81.6 million metric tons, up from 80.1 million tons. If Russia's crop continues to prosper, then that likely will place pressure on export prices for wheat.
INSIGHT
Fresh Estimates: Brazil's agricultural agency Conab released new estimates for the country's crops-- forecasting that the total harvest will be 322.5 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, which is up 8.2% from the previous cycle. The agency said that soybean production will rise to 166.1 million tons from the 147.4 million tons reported for 2023/24, while corn rises to 119.8 million tons from 115.7 million tons in 2023/24- both lower than Conab's previous 2024/25 estimates last month. Brazilian crops are being closely monitored by U.S. grain traders, who anticipate that a new trade war between the U.S. and China will allow Brazil to rapidly increase its market share in global grain exports.
Slowpoke: A La Niña climate system has not yet emerged, said the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center--even though the agency has for months forecasted a high probability of La Niña coming to pass in the closing months of 2024. The NOAA now assesses a 57% chance for a weak La Niña to develop between now through December. "The team still favors onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have shorter duration than other historical episodes," said the agency in a note. A weaker system makes it less likely for the system to show its typical effects on the weather, said the agency.
Sale Streak: The government says 176,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year. Today's sale marks the third straight day the USDA has announced flash sales. The weekly export sales report from the USDA is delayed until tomorrow morning, due to the Veteran's Day holiday earlier this week.
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-14-24 1543ET
