By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for November delivery fell 1.1%, to $10.08 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with traders getting prepared for any surprises out of Monday's WASDE report.

--Corn for December delivery fell 1.1%, to $3.96 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for September delivery fell 0.4%, to $5.37 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Ready to Go: Grain traders are getting their pre-WASDE positions in order ahead of the weekend, with the report scheduled to be released at noon Eastern time Monday. "Funds are heavy to the short side so some of these weaker positions are getting out," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. "Weather is keeping any buying interest to a minimum as we are not seeing much for a threat." The lack of weather threat also kept a lid on futures trading today.

Going to Market: Also putting pressure on the agricultural complex is the increased amount of U.S. farmer selling, this despite the general reluctance farmers have had in letting go of their crop at the multi-year low prices they trade at today. "The market flow is reflecting the farmer selling, which is coming daily, and is increasing," said Charlie Serantinger of Marex in a note.


INSIGHT


Setting the Goalposts: Traders say Monday's WASDE may need to show sizable reductions in supply versus the uptick seen in estimates from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in order to spur any sort of rally in prices. "It will take a very bullish report to get prices to rally," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. For both corn and soybeans, the main question regarding supply is whether or not a reduction in harvested acres, or higher amounts of acres left unplanted under the Prevent Plant program, may offset the higher yields anticipated in Monday's report.

Running in Neutral: An ENSO-neutral climate is expected to stay in place in August, with the Climate Prediction Center forecasting a 66% chance for it to switch over into a La Niña system in September through November. The agency also gives a 74% chance for La Niña to develop over the winter, from November to January. La Niña missing the U.S. crop-growing season has spared U.S. crops much of the heat stress associated with that climate system, with much of the Corn Belt typically receiving above-average temperatures.


AHEAD


--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08-08-24 1640ET