By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for December delivery rose 1.9% to $5.47 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, on fears of potential new disruptions in Black Sea grain exports after the U.S. authorized Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia using U.S.-supplied long-range missiles.

--Corn for December delivery rose 1.2% to $4.29 1/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for January delivery rose 1.2% to $10.10 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


War Worries: Wheat futures were up all day on re-ignited concerns around grain export availability from the Black Sea - with traders reacting to Biden's approval over the weekend for Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied missiles in its war with Russia. "The geopolitical uncertainty of the Black Sea has end users extending their forward coverage while the managed money lifts out of net wheat short holdings," said AgResource in a note. Other analysts mentioned that steep selling last week primed CBOT futures to rise today.

Keeping Hydrated: CBOT soybeans finished the session higher, but spent much of the day under pressure due to rainfall that is buoying the development of the Brazilian crop. "The rainy season started late in Center-West Brazil, delaying the start of soybean planting, but the rains have continued strong since that point," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. Short-covering was seen by other analysts as the factor pulling futures back up late.


INSIGHT


Entering Dormancy: U.S. winter wheat, which has been seeing improved crop quality in recent readings from the USDA, is approaching its winter dormancy period, said Terry Reilly of Marex. "Crop conditions for some of the areas could remain near current levels through the end of the month," said Reilly. Multiple snowstorms are expected to hit wheat in Canada and the U.S. Northern Plains, Reilly adds, with snow cover being a generally positive thing for U.S. wheat health. The USDA will update its crop ratings for winter wheat this afternoon, with last week's report showing 44% of U.S. winter wheat in good or excellent condition.

Easing Deficit: The U.S. trade deficit with China continues to be the country's largest, according to data compiled by S&P Global Intelligence. The $287 billion gap for the 12 months ended Sept. 30 is down nearly 20% from 2021, S&P said. But with other leading trading nations, the trade deficit has widened -- which may mean that these other nations could also be targets for tariff actions, S&P said. "Countries and regions with rapidly rising deficits - even those with free trade deals with the U.S. including Mexico and South Korea - could face tariff actions," S&P said.

Soy Surge: The USDA started the week with new large-volume sales. The USDA said 30,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean oil have been sold to India during the 2024/25 marketing year. The USDA adds that 261,264 tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year, and 135,000 tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to the Philippines for 2024/25 delivery.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly livestock slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-18-24 1549ET