By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for September delivery fell 1.4% to $5.27 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with Russia's missile strike hitting the Odessa port briefly reigniting trade concerns surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war.
--Corn for December delivery fell 1% to $3.96 3/4 a bushel.
--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.1% to $9.67 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Running Out of Gas: Wheat found support in morning trading from news of a fresh missile strike hitting Ukraine's Odessa port - although that support evaporated by the afternoon. "Early indications are that the damage was relatively minor," Arlan Suderman of StoneX said in a note. Suderman adds that wheat prices are treading water, with little to move them markedly in either direction. "Fundamentally, there's really not anything to justify a sustained rally at this point, but neither is there necessarily a reason to continue lower from these multi-year lows," he said.
Competitive Pricing: Thursday's export sales report from the USDA provided support for soybeans. The USDA reported that soybean export sales for the week ended Aug. 8 totaled 1.57 million metric tons across the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years -- with a lot of that purchasing coming from China. It's evidence that prices have gotten low enough for U.S. grains to pique the interest of foreign buyers that were more likely to buy from other destinations like Brazil. "Low prices are attracting some end user buying," Linda Meyer of AgriSource said.
INSIGHT
Topping Out: Corn futures have attempted to rally this week, but have been unable to sustain any gains - and further rallies may be hard to come by, said John Stewart and Associates in a note. "Not sure how much higher we can go with a pretty docile weather outlook, and any fund short covering that is being mostly offset with farmer selling," said the firm. High average daily ethanol production reported by the EIA is seen as a hopeful beacon for higher consumption of U.S. corn, but traders and analysts are unconvinced that this will lead to an enduring rally for prices.
Global Wheat Outlook Trimmed: The International Grains Council cut its forecast for global grain production on lower barley, wheat and sorghum crop expectations, mainly from the European Union. The IGC now expects global grain output at 2.315 billion metric tons in 2024/25, down from July's estimate of 2.321 billion tons. It's still a sharp rise from the prior year's estimated harvest of 2.299 billion tons, and the highest on record. Wheat output is expected at 799 million tons, down from 801 million tons in July.
AHEAD
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.
Joe Hoppe contributed to this article.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-15-24 1526ET
