By Kirk Maltais
-- Wheat for March delivery fell 1% to $5.44 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with grains trading tentatively as traders await tone-setting events early in 2025.
-- Soybeans for January delivery fell 0.5% to $9.76 3/4 a bushel.
-- Corn for March delivery fell 0.3% to $4.43 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Holding Pattern: Many traders are looking ahead to 2025, treading water in trading sessions before the turn of the year.
"Waiting for the USDA report in January and the new administration," said Linda Meyer of AgriSource.
The December WASDE report did little to move the needle for sentiment around high supplies and not enough demand to balance that out.
Competitive Edge: Soybean futures fell to the lowest they have been since mid-October, according to FactSet data.
What has kept soybean futures below the $10-a-bushel mark is the signs of a big soybean crop out of Brazil, which continues to give U.S. soybeans issues with competing on the world stage at competitive prices.
"[The] soybean market is heavy," said Conner Bridgman of Advance Trading.
In its December WASDE, the USDA said that demand for soybean oil was a positive factor for soybean futures, but supply remains readily available globally.
INSIGHT
Reduced Outlook: Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon forecast a smaller Russian wheat crop in 2025, below the average size of recent years and the smallest wheat crop in four years. The firm says that the overall Russian crop is expected to tally 78.7 million metric tons, with the winter wheat crop in particular being hurt by unhelpful weather conditions.
"Crop conditions in Russia, the world's number one wheat exporter, are the worst in decades," said Andrey Sizov of SovEcon in a note.
Sizov forecasts global wheat prices to rise as a result.
"The global wheat supply and demand balance sheet remains tight," he said. "We believe these factors are not yet priced in by the market."
In Your Face: The USDA reported new sales of corn and soybeans to multiple countries this morning. Mexico purchased 170,400 metric tons of corn for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year, Spain 187,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in 2024-25, and an additional 132,000 tons of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2024-25 delivery.
Many traders moved cautiously as China's absence from flash reports such as Tuesday's as well as weekly export sales reports spark concern.
"China's absence as a world grain importer and the record large South American soy crop are the 'in your face' nearby fundamentals," AgResource said in a note.
AHEAD
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST Thursday.
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly livestock slaughter report at 3 p.m. EST Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-17-24 1657ET