By Kirk Maltais
-Wheat for March delivery fell 1.1% to $5.45 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, moving lower along with currencies like the Russian ruble and the Brazilian real while the U.S. dollar index moved higher.
-Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.2% to $10.12 1/2 a bushel.
-Corn for March delivery rose 0.2% to $4.59 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Currency Pressure: The U.S. dollar index was up throughout the day today, which in turn is having a particularly negative impact on wheat futures. As the USD strengthens, the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and euro are all dropping--making U.S. wheat exports even less competitive against grains sourced from elsewhere, said AgResource in a note--exaggerating the usual spread between U.S. wheat and other wheat.
New Year, Same Weather: Fundamental news for grains was light today, keeping trader focus on how crops are faring in growing areas elsewhere. In South America, Brazilian weather continues to be very supportive for large crops developing there, while Argentinian weather still, at times, experiences dry patches that have the potential to threaten crops--although there hasn't been any notable falloff in Argentina's crop production.
INSIGHT
Rollin' on the River: The USDA said 945,000 metric tons of grains traveled through the Mississippi River system in the week ended Dec. 28. It's the highest weekly volume moved on the river since May 2022, the agency said in its weekly Grain Transportation Report. "Recent increases in export sales of corn and soybeans have been driving the rise in grain movements, despite tow and draft restrictions along the [river]," said the USDA.
Reemerging Threat: Analysts are warning that a resumed strike by International Longshoremen's Association workers at ports across the U.S. after Jan. 15 could leave a larger mark on U.S. industries, including grains. Workers staged a three-day strike last fall, before union brass agreed to end the walkout and negotiate remaining details under a contract extension that ends Jan. 15. President-elect Donald Trump has voiced support for the ILA, which may embolden ILA workers. The first strike covered only containerized shipments, while U.S. grains are mostly shipped in bulk. But if this strike lasts more than a few days, then delays could impact the grain trade as well.
Creeping Up: Average daily production of ethanol in the U.S. moved closer to the all-time record high set in late November, the EIA said Thursday. Daily ethanol production for the week ended Dec. 27 averaged 1.111 million barrels a day, up 4,000 b/d from last week's average. That's nearing the record of 1.119 million b/d reported by the EIA for the week ended Nov. 22. U.S. ethanol inventories totaled 23.64 million barrels, up nearly 600,000 bbl from the previous week. That is the highest inventories have been since mid-September, according to EIA data. Ahead of the report's release, traders were watching to see if negative production margins would impact production levels.
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-02-25 1524ET