By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for March delivery fell 1.8%, to $5.48 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, declining despite a sharp drop-off in the U.S. dollar index ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

--Corn for March delivery were unchanged, at $4.28 a bushel.

--Soybeans for January delivery rose 0.6%, to $9.89 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Lacking Support: The U.S. dollar is lower in response to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but CBOT wheat futures shrugged off that momentum. "I am surprised wheat isn't getting any type of a bump with the dollar under pressure today," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. One factor at play is lower prices for exports, with Russian wheat export prices moving lower and Argentinian prices also falling.

Chinese Buying: The USDA reported Wednesday morning that 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year. Grain analysts and traders usually respond positively to flash sales to China, which provided soybeans with support Wednesday. Longer-term though, the feeling is that it's too little, too late. "China is not asking for U.S. soybean fob offers this morning beyond mid-January," said AgResource in a note. "The window on U.S. soybean exports is seasonally closing."

Holiday Pause: Grain traders were mostly on the sidelines Wednesday in front of the Thanksgiving holiday, said independent trader Sterling Smith. Uncertainties around U.S. trade policy under incoming President Trump are making traders tentative. "Tariffs are the elephant in the room," said Smith.


INSIGHT


Supply-Demand Balance: U.S. grain export sales are relatively strong and are expected to stay that way in Friday's weekly report from the USDA, said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. But it likely isn't enough to offset the huge harvests coming from the U.S., he added. "We have not yet seen enough demand to suggest that demand needs to be rationed with higher prices," said Suderman.

Hitting a New High: Daily average U.S. ethanol production set a record high for the week ended Nov. 22, the EIA said Wednesday. In its latest weekly report, the EIA said that average daily ethanol production for the week was 1.119 million barrels a day--an all-time high, eclipsing the previous record set earlier this month of 1.113 million barrels a day. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones forecast average production to land anywhere from 1.095 million barrels a day to 1.116 million barrels a day. The record production comes despite negative margins for ethanol producers.

Hard Mode: President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Canadian goods is likely to result in higher fertilizer prices for U.S. farmers, coming at a time when high input costs are already crimping farmer profitability. "A 25% tariff on Canadian imports could lift Corn Belt potash prices relative to rest-of-world pricing," said ADM Investor Services in a note. "A 25% tariff would be acutely felt by the potash trade...U.S. farmers looking to 2025, where crop budgets are near breakeven, could see potash pricing increase about $80 a short ton to cover the levy."


AHEAD


--The USDA and CBOT will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Both will reopen Friday.

--The CBOT will reopen for trading in the morning, closing early at 1:05 p.m ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-27-24 1544ET