By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for December delivery rose 0.6%, to $6.02 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with continued weather issues affecting Russia's wheat supply lifting futures, along with speculation about potential export restrictions.
--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.6%, to $10.14 1/4 a bushel.
--Corn for December delivery fell 0.7%, to $4.18 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Supply Constraints: The outlook for Russian wheat continues to be the main factor supporting futures on the CBOT, with the most-active contract closing up again Thursday. "The U.S. wheat market is supported by concerns about Russia's dry weather and the possible restriction of exports," said Argus in a note. "The renewed international demand is also stimulating the funds' positions buyback."
Improved Situation: Brazilian crops are expected to receive adequate rainfall in the next week, with areas in the central portion of the country catching much-needed precipitation. "Most important is that rainfall will expand into Central Brazil and additional rain lies in the offing for Argentina," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. "Even the drier [Global Forecast System] projects rainfall adequate for soybean seeding Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Minas Gerais." This outlook for better precipitation kept pressure on corn and soybeans throughout the trading session.
INSIGHT
Flagging Appetite: The Brazilian weather outlook came into focus as some analysts question China's appetite for U.S. soybeans. "China remains the primary buyer of U.S. soybeans, including net purchases of 21.4 million bushels in the week ending October 3," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. "But it is only buying hand-to-mouth, with virtually nothing purchased yet for delivery in December and January as it hopes that the Brazilian farmer will let go of larger supplies before then." This week's export-sales report from the USDA did little to convince traders otherwise.
Place Your Bets: Odds for the development of a La Niña climate system have been cut by the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. La Niña now has a 60% chance of developing through the rest of the year, according to the agency. Should it develop between September and December, then the system is expected to persist from January to March 2025. The outlook is down from last month's forecast of a 71% chance. The Climate Prediction Center said that it expects this La Niña system to be both "weak" and "short-lived." How this winter plays out will be important for crops being planted next spring, as farmers in the Corn Belt need adequate soil moisture to successfully plant.
Let Down: U.S. corn and soybean export sales landed on the low end of forecasts from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Total corn sales in the 2024/25 marketing year were 1.22 million metric tons, versus analyst forecasts of sales between 1 million tons and 1.5 million tons. Combined soybean sales in 2024/25 and 2025/26 totaled 1.26 million tons, versus forecasts of between 1.2 million tons and 1.8 million tons. Wheat sales for the week totaled 433,600 tons in 2024/25, on the higher end of analyst forecasts, with projections between 250,000 tons and 550,000 tons. Today's total did little to reinforce any sentiments about improved export demand.
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Friday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will be closed in observance of the Indigenous Peoples Day/Columbus Day, reopening on Tuesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-10-24 1504ET
