By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for December delivery fell 0.6% to $7.41 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, as traders positioned themselves for the USDA's estimates next week.
--Corn for December delivery rose 0.3% to $5.34 a bushel.
--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.4% to $12.47 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Looking Ahead: Traders spent much of the day preparing for Tuesday's WASDE report amid expectations that the USDA could revise its yield forecasts for row crops higher. "Producers should make sure sales are current as a big yield from the USDA on Tuesday would put the market on pace to drop," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternative. Traders typically position themselves based on expectations for the report ahead of its release.
Back Tracking: Wheat traders ignored reasons to buy Thursday, including a longer-term weather outlook suggesting higher prices ahead. "The run up in energy prices, and the disruption in supply chains has world buyers getting nervous, and even though prices have backed off into the northern hemisphere harvest from last spring's highs, they are seeing the effect of this in landed values through higher ocean freight," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital.
INSIGHT
Loss of Appetite: China's demand for soybeans is in question by grain traders, especially when considering that the USDA didn't report any new flash sales of soybeans to Beijing on Thursday. "Many crushing plants remain closed due to a shortage of power in China, but the bigger problem near term continues to be poor feeding margins for hogs, which historically account for roughly half the soymeal demand," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. Chinese demand for U.S. agriculture has been a focus this week after the Biden administration said trade talks between the U.S. and China are being restarted in hopes of a further trade deal.
Mixed Bag: Analysts surveyed by WSJ expect the USDA to report U.S. corn yields slightly lower than previously forecast, while soybean yields are expected to be higher. Analysts estimate corn yields at 175.9 bushels an acre, down slightly from the USDA's estimate in September of 176.3 bushels. Soybean yields are forecast at 51.1 bushels an acre, up from 50.6 bushels predicted last month.
Corn Surge: Export sales of U.S. corn rose from the previous week, fueled largely by strong sales to Mexico. The USDA says for the week ended Sept. 30, corn sales for the 2021/22 marketing year totaled 1.27 million metric tons, exceeding expectations of traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who expected sales of 350,000 tons to 800,000 tons. It's also a strong uptick from the previous week, when sales totaled 370,400 tons. Mexico, the leading buyer for corn this week, purchased 801,400 tons. Other leading buyers for the week include Colombia, Honduras, Canada, and Guatemala.
AHEAD
--The CFTC will release its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will be closed in observance of Columbus Day on Monday. It will reopen Tuesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Tuesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-07-21 1558ET
