By Kirk Maltais
--Corn for May delivery fell 1.9% to $7.48 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, amid USDA data showing a slowdown in export shipments of corn leaving the U.S.
--Wheat for May delivery fell 0.9% to $10.96 1/4 a bushel.
--Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.3% to $16.70 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Foot Off the Gas: A drop in the amount of U.S. corn inspected for export reported by the USDA this week put a weight on CBOT futures this afternoon. In its latest grain export inspections report, the USDA said that corn inspections totaled 1.14 million metric tons for the week ended March 10 -- down from 1.58 million tons inspected in the previous week and well down from 2.27 million tons reported at this time last year. "Total corn shipments last week to all destinations were a five-week low, raising red flags for traders, and contributing to today's sell-off in the feed grain," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX.
Getting Back on Track: Also applying pressure on grains Monday is the sentiment among some traders who are questioning how much the disruption of war in Ukraine will really impact the availability of grain in the region, as well as the flow of exports out of Black Sea ports. "Ukraine's Deputy Ag Minister said they will start planting soon -- there is enough grain on storage to feed the population," said Craig Turner of Daniels Trading. "Russia is expected to resume wheat exports from their Black Sea ports." He adds that shipping vessels are still being loaded with ag exports, and are finding alternative routes out of the areas. "Russian and Ukraine grain and oilseeds will eventually make it to the export market but at a slower pace and a higher cost," said Mr. Turner.
INSIGHTS
Lines of Communication: Talks between Russia and Ukraine to reach a cease-fire are continuing, something that grain traders are closely following. "The back-and-forth on the progress of a cease fire and peace talks is ongoing," said AgResource. The Wall Street Journal reports today that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting via videoconference, with an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky describing the talks as "hard discussions."
Energy Slump: Weakness being seen in crude oil prices amid ongoing cease fire talks between Russia and Ukraine is translating to pressure on vegetable oil prices, including soybean oil. "A sharply lower trade in WTI crude oil and dive in palm oil futures are weighing on soybean oil," said Terry Reilly of Futures International. "China is releasing vegetable oils out of reserves." Over the weekend, palm oil futures fell amid speculation that Indonesia has approved more export permits and expectations of a seasonally stronger output of palm oil. In pre-market trading on the CBOT Monday, soyoil futures closed down 2.8%.
New Sources of Optimism: While the war in Ukraine is ongoing, the lift to prices stemming from the fighting and economic fallout of sanctions is losing steam, said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives. "There has been a lot of bullishness and risk priced into about every market over the last month, and the corn market right now is struggling to find the next piece of bullish news to keep prices supported," said Mr. Bergman. "The finish today will be important, but the market is overdue for a more sizable pull-back." The same is true for both soybeans and wheat, Mr. Bergman adds.
AHEAD
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-14-22 1544ET
