A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of April 24-29 by Dow Jones Newswires in London.


By Yusuf Khan


GRAINS & OILSEEDS

Grain and oilseeds this week are being dominated by macroeconomic sentiment, with lower commodity prices in general hitting grains.

"The macro mood is bearish," said Peak Trading Research in a note. Peak pointed to lower crude oil prices and a weaker yuan and Brazilian real hitting grain markets in particular, while adding that strong black sea flows are impacting wheat.

"Bond markets are now pricing a 90% probability that the Fed hikes +25 basis points next Wednesday, May 3rd... the highest probability since the SVB/CS bank risk macro washout five weeks ago," said Peak. "This hawkish shift has supported the U.S. dollar and pressured risk assets and commodity markets lower."

Additionally, cheap and ample flows from the black sea are weighing on wheat, the U.K's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board said in a note. This on top of better expected supply from Argentina next season is also helping to lower prices. However, AHDB expects volatility in prices due to concerns that the grain initiative won't be renewed by Russia next month.

This week's GDP figures and PCE inflation are likely to be the major macro points, Peak added.

Chicago-wheat futures are down 0.5% to 7.70 a bushel, on Monday while corn is 1.3% lower at $6.07 a bushel.


SOFT COMMODITIES

In terms of soft commodities, cocoa and sugar remain in demand from funds. Rabobank pointed to ICE London cocoa gaining 3.8% week on week in its commitment of traders report, saying markets were "buoyed by continued concerns for [Ivory Coast] production prospects."

Rabobank also noted that managed money now has a net long position of 95,060 lots, which "is the longest funds have been on record"

ING Commodities noted that sugar longs also increased to 226,058 lots.

Arabica coffee futures in New York were up 2.1% to $1.95 a pound, raw sugar was 1.9% higher at $0.25 a pound while cocoa was 0.8% lower at $2,261 a metric ton.


Write to Yusuf Khan at yusuf.khan@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-24-23 1214ET