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WHEAT FUTURES (ZW) - CBE (ELECTRONIC)/C1

End-of-day quote Chicago Board Of Trade  -  2022-11-25
771.50 USc   -2.77%
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Soybeans Sink Following USDA Report -- Daily Grain Highlights

09/30/2022 | 03:03pm EST

By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for November delivery fell 3.2%, to $13.66 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, dropping following the release of the USDA's quarterly stocks report, which showed higher-than-expected old-crop stocks of soybeans.

--Corn for December delivery rose 1.3%, to $6.77 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for December delivery rose 3%, to $9.24 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Negative Indicator: The USDA raised its expectations for U.S. old-crop soybean stocks in its quarterly report, which sent soybeans down midday. The uptick in soybean stocks shows a slowdown in the flow of soybeans out of the Midwest, Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital told The Wall Street Journal. "The main topic of conversation is that the river bids for beans are below Trump trade war lows with the barge problems on the river, with no rains for the Mississippi River in the forecast for the next two weeks at least," said Mr. Sernatinger. "Beans are backing up in the country."

Surprise Stats: In its Quarterly Stocks report, the USDA said that old-crop corn stocks are totaling 1.38 billion bushels, and wheat stocks totaled 1.78 billion bushels. For corn and wheat, the figures are below the expectations of analysts surveyed by the Journal this week. The USDA also released its 2022 small grains summary report, which showed that U.S. wheat acres fell 4% to 35.5 million acres. As a result, wheat futures led gains on the exchange today.

Up in Arms: Before the report's release, Russia's annexation of some regions of Ukraine was the main driver for trading, with the move escalating the tensions and stakes of the conflict between the two nations. "Grains are supported by rising tensions between western countries and Russia after the annexation in Ukraine," said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note. The annexations are predicated on referendums dismissed by western nations and Ukraine as a sham.


INSIGHTS


Deal Politics: With the USDA quarterly stocks report seemingly showing smaller-sized crops than previously reported, attention is turning towards what happens with the grain export corridor deal in the Black Sea. Particularly, if Russia pulls out of the deal then grain prices will likely surge, John Payne of Hedgepoint USA told the Journal. "Things longer term depend on the grain corridor," said Mr. Payne. "If Russia makes a move on Odessa and says no more grain is leaving, I think corn is likely to see the level needed to shut off ethanol demand here in the US."

Slimming Margins: Margins for ethanol production have become less attractive in late September, said Marex in a note. The firm estimates that through the end of September, ethanol margins have slipped to between six to eight cents per gallon. That's down from nearly as high as 20 cents a gallon in late August, according to Marex. "Among the many excuses heard for slowing production are logistical problems amid the rail strike scare, high corn basis levels, enzyme issues slowing the production process due to heat, and maintenance taking longer than usual amid parts shortages," said the firm.


AHEAD:

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its monthly grain crushings report at 3 p.m. Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-30-22 1502ET

Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
AC (AC) - CBR (FLOOR)/C1 0.83% 1.09 End-of-day quote.-20.73%
CORN FUTURES (ZC) - CBE (ELECTRONIC)/C1 0.60% 667.25 End-of-day quote.11.80%
CORN?FUTURES (SETTLEMENT ONLY) (ZC) - CBR (FLOOR)/C11 0.00%End-of-day quote.0.00%
S&P GSCI CORN INDEX 0.75% 554.1795 Real-time Quote.12.31%
S&P GSCI SOY BEANS INDEX 0.02% 570.2227 Real-time Quote.7.22%
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES (ZM) - CBE (ELECTRONIC)/C1 -0.24% 408.7 End-of-day quote.-0.49%
US DOLLAR / RUSSIAN ROUBLE (USD/RUB) 0.00% 59.75 Delayed Quote.-19.47%
WHEAT FUTURES (ZW) - CBE (ELECTRONIC)/C1 -2.77% 771.5 End-of-day quote.2.95%
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