By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for March delivery rose 1.5%, to $7.52 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, in response to a comment from a USDA official calling Russian wheat production of over 100 million metric tons 'not feasible.'

--Soybeans for March delivery rose 1.4%, to $15.23 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery rose 1.2%, to $6.82 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Crop Controversy: Russia has been touting a bumper crop for its wheat, but some market observers question the veracity of claims that Russia will produce over 100 million metric tons of wheat. Reuters reports that an USDA official told attendees of a European grains conference that Russia hitting such high production was "not feasible." As a result, traders have a more optimistic outlook for prices moving higher with less Russian wheat hitting the export market. "Will the market re-evaluate their position of having the largest net-short position in SRW since mid-2019 now?" asks Michael Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in a note.

As Hoped For: Weekly export sales of U.S. grains reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture arrived on what was mostly the high-end of estimates by grain traders, helping support futures throughout the day. For the week ended Jan. 19, export sales of corn totaled 925,900 metric tons across the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years. Meanwhile, soybeans landed at 1.27 million tons, and wheat landed at 500,400 tons.


INSIGHT


Backtracking: U.S. fertilizer prices are at their lowest levels in over a year, according to the latest assessment from agricultural data provider DTN. The firm reports that prices for all of the eight major fertilizer varieties they track, prices per ton are now at their lowest level seen since this time last year. The drop-off in fertilizer prices comes as natural gas prices continue to plummet, with those prices currently trading at their lowest level since April 2021.

Still a Full Plate: U.S. rail transportation for grains was able to turn around a slump in carloads and speed in 2022, but still has a lot of room to improve, says the USDA in its latest weekly Grain Transportation Report. "The number of unfilled orders of empty grain cars is at a record high, and grain train origin dwell times still hover above the 4-year average," said the USDA. The agency also adds that while barge and ocean rates have improved and fallen below where they were at this time last year, diesel prices remain higher, making transportation of grains cross-country still an expensive affair.


AHEAD


--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its monthly agricultural prices report at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-26-23 1507ET