After its recent uptrend, the Paris Bourse is likely to open in a more wait-and-see mode on Thursday, in a cautious market on the eve of the publication of monthly US employment figures.

At around 8:15 a.m., the futures contract - end-of-month delivery - on the CAC 40 index was down 23 points at 7,422.5, suggesting a pause after the upward trajectory of recent days.

Investors seem tempted to catch their breath in the wake of an autumn rally that saw the Paris index climb to within a hundred points of its annual highs.

Caution should be exercised ahead of the US job creation figures for November, as a weak figure could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Conversely, better-than-expected indicators could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of recalibrating its monetary policy.

'There is a risk that if the US jobs figures (...) or the central bank speeches scheduled for next week do not go in the direction of a rapid start to the easing cycle, this will lead to high volatility in long rates, which will inevitably be reflected in equities', warns Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.

We must therefore be vigilant", warns the analyst.

So much so that some strategists are wondering whether the stock market's rise this autumn went too far, too fast.

"It's true that the markets went to great lengths to incorporate the 'goldilocks' scenario, but an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold is a fragile equilibrium", says Barclays.

The British bank adds: "The high hopes of investors, who want the best of both worlds, i.e. aggressive rate cuts accompanied by strong earnings growth, could soon be confronted with a harsh reality".

And Barclays cites, in no particular order, overbought technical indicators, growth that looks mediocre in 2024, disinflation that could stall and the lack of fiscal discipline likely to weigh on the bond market.

The economic indicators scheduled for the day will be all the more closely watched.

In the United States, investors will be watching weekly jobless claims, which will enable them to verify whether the job market is slowing down as sharply as the latest statistics have suggested.

In Germany, industrial production figures should confirm the recessionary spiral threatening the country.

From a technical point of view, chartists are nonetheless pointing out that the CAC 40 looks set to break out of the congestion zone in which the index has been consolidating for several months.

A breach of this pivotal level would kick-start the uptrend towards the target at 7537 points, then the upper part of the horizontal channel at 7592 points", say Kiplink's teams.

"A breach of this major resistance would reactivate the long-term uptrend, with a target of 8015 points", the brokerage even predicts in its latest market update.

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