The Paris Bourse (+0.4%) remains in high water, close to 7,280 (intraday zenith at 7,296, i.e. +0.65%), benefiting from a positive penultimate November session on Wall Street, with +0.3% on the S&P500 and the Nasdaq (which peaked at 14.420).

These 2 indices have now risen 18 times out of a series of 22, i.e. a ratio in excess of 75% (and close to 80% if the rise continues on Thursday 30th), driven by semiconductors, which were the driving force throughout November.

The CAC40 was buoyed by the automotive sector, with Stellantis up 5.7% to an all-time high of 19.8E (following in the footsteps of General Motors, up 9% on the announcement of a plan to buy back $10 billion of its own shares).

In the early afternoon, investors were reassured by the first estimate of German consumer prices for November: the CPI fell by 0.6 points to +3.2%, its lowest level since June 2021 (+2.4%), according to the preliminary Destatis estimate.

The 4.5% year-on-year fall in energy prices is said to have had a particularly moderating effect.
Excluding food and energy, underlying inflation is expected to come in at +3.8% for the month just ended, compared with +4.3% in October.

"This reinforces the possibility that inflation in the eurozone will fall further, after having already fallen more than expected in September and October", points out Christopher Dembik, strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

He adds: "Obviously, the fall in inflation is likely to reinforce expectations of a rate cut by the ECB, which is one of the main factors driving up financial markets at the moment.

Another important date is the publication, at 2.30pm, of the second estimate of US gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter: at +5.2%, it reflects much stronger growth than the 4.9% initially announced for economic activity over the period from July to September.
Consumption and investment (revised upwards) are the 2 main drivers of the most spectacular growth recorded since the 4th quarter of 2020.

On the currency markets, the euro weakens slightly, down 0.1% to around $1.0984.

On the government bond front, bond yields confirmed their good start to the week, with the yield on the ten-year Bund falling by -7pts to 2.422%, and the yield on our OATs (-7pts to 2.988%) falling back below 3% for the 1st time since August 31, or even July 25.

The yield on T-Bonds is also down -6Pts to 4.273%, the lowest since September 14.
Fred Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, believes that the markets are getting ahead of themselves when it comes to rate cuts in 2024, and that his own expectations are far removed from those of the market.
His colleague Raphaël Bostik, a much more dove-like figure, believes that inflation will eventually converge towards 2%.

Oil prices, for their part, are moving slightly upwards: Brent crude is up 0.2% at $81.8 a barrel.

Note that the ounce of gold, at $2,040, is back to within 1% of its all-time high of $2,060

In French company news, TotalEnergies has announced that it is investing £20 million to acquire a minority stake in Xlinks First Limited, a company to be founded in 2019 in the UK, joining investors Octopus Energy and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company.

RIVE Private Investment announces that it has signed an exclusive partnership with Safran Helicopter Engines, which has developed a decarbonization consulting offer with a CO2 emissions tracking model.

EDF announces the success of its first green bond issue dedicated to financing the existing nuclear fleet, for a nominal amount of one billion euros, with a maturity of 3.5 years and a fixed coupon of 3.75%.

Copyright (c) 2023 All rights reserved.