After gravitating for a long time close to its equilibrium point, the Paris stock market ended the session down 0.26% at 7,250 points, penalized in particular by the luxury goods sector, with -1.8% for Kering, -1.6% for L'Oréal and -0.5% for Hermès.

According to strategists, the slowdown in US growth has become an obvious factor for investors to take into account, given the employment statistics published in recent weeks.

After an idyllic first half of the year for the markets, managers and analysts are now turning their anxious eyes to a second half that could hold more turbulence in store.

Signs of nervousness are multiplying on Wall Street, where last week the Dow Jones interrupted a series of four consecutive weeks of gains by retreating by more than 2%.

For the time being, the US indices are moving in dispersed order, with -0.1% for the Dow Jones, +0.4% for the S&P500 and +1.3% for the Nasdaq.
The key question for market participants will now be to determine whether the US economy is heading for a soft landing, or a possible slide back into recession.

In this respect, investors will be keeping a close eye on the state of consumer spending, and in particular US retail sales, due on Thursday, in order to reassure themselves about the economic situation.

US inflation figures, due on Wednesday, will also be watched with great interest.

While the second-quarter corporate earnings 'season' is about to come to an end, Walmart's accounts - due on Thursday - will provide an insight into US consumer morale.

Above all, market participants are hoping that the recent bout of volatility will normalize, thanks to the anticipated dip in activity with the August vacations.

'It's not unusual for financial markets to experience a correction during the summer', point out the teams at Janus Henderson.

With leverage and less liquid markets (in summer), a trend reversal (weak yen to strong yen) inevitably creates margin calls", they explain.

"Those who are forced to sell their risk exposure liquidate their positions, which explains the speed of the stock market correction", add the managers.

The VIX index of volatility on S&P 500 options, often referred to as the 'fear index', has temporarily reached a level not seen since early 2020 and the coronavirus crisis.

Although the current volatility may be painful, a recovery from a period of excessive optimism could pave the way for a healthier market for the rest of 2024", says Janus Henderson.

In a sign that the evolution of economic growth is now viewed with greater concern, traders are now anticipating with almost 50% probability a 50 basis point cut in Fed rates in September.

All this is probably premature, but now calls for a certain caution in portfolio positioning", warns Florian Ielpo, Head of Macroeconomic Research at LOIM.

Brent crude oil is trading at $81/barrel in London (+1.9%), while the euro is perfectly stable against the greenback, at $1.092/euro.

In other French company news, Viel & Cie reports consolidated sales of operating subsidiaries of €597.2 million for the first half of 2024, up 7.9% at variable exchange rates and 9.7% at constant exchange rates, year-on-year.

In addition, TotalEnergies announces the start-up of production from the Anchor field, located 225 kilometers off the coast of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, in which it holds a 37.14% interest alongside operator Chevron (62.86%). Anchor will represent nearly 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) net to TotalEnergies.


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