The Paris stock market gained almost 0.4% this morning, around the 7,450-point mark, driven in particular by luxury goods (with +2.8% for Kering, +2% for LVMH) and banks (+2.2% for Société Générale, +2.1% for BNP Paribas).

As expected, there was no stock market psychodrama after the censure", observes Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.

"The reality is that the market has fully understood that a debt crisis in France is a fantasy scenario", explains the analyst.

Although the Paris market got back on track last week, it is far from certain that it will have a very positive end to the year, says the professional.

"Now that the censorship episode is over, the question is whether the CAC 40 is likely to stage a Christmas rally?" asks Christopher Dembik.

"We think it's going to be complicated", he believes.

In his view, it would not be entirely surprising if the CAC 40 ended the year below the symbolic 7,000-point mark, which would correspond to a decline of around 7% for the year as a whole.

By way of comparison, the S&P 500 has risen by over 27% since January 1.

Fears that the ECB will opt on Thursday for a limited 25 basis point cut in its key rates - rather than a more aggressive 50 basis point easing - could also weigh on the trend and prevent the traditional "Christmas rally".

"Faster cuts would be more appropriate to the European economic situation, in our view, but the fall in the euro seems to be scaring off central bankers", notes François Rimeu, senior strategist at Crédit Mutuel AM.

Traditionally, equity markets tend to rise in the last few weeks of the year, driven in particular by balance sheet packaging, with the average gain in the US for the S&P index reaching over 2%.


In addition to monetary policy, investors are gearing up for Wednesday's release of the US consumer price index, which will be particularly closely watched a week ahead of the Fed's final meeting of the year.

According to consensus, US inflation is expected to have accelerated to +0.3% month-on-month in November, after coming in at 0.2% in October.

On the energy market, oil prices resumed their upward trend on Monday, supported by the reappearance of geopolitical risk and concerns over the unrest in Syria following the fall of President Bashar Al-Assad.

Brent crude recovered 1% to $71.8 a barrel.
In other French company news, Alstom announced an order worth almost 520 million euros, to supply SNCF Voyageurs with 35 additional RER NG trainsets for the RER E line of the Île-de-France Mobilités network, under the framework contract signed in 2017.

Thales announced on Monday that it had been selected by airport operator Avinor to deploy a drone traffic management system for Norwegian airspace.

Finally, SES reports that it has been awarded a contract worth up to $117 million by the US Department of Defense to support the operations of the United States European Command (USEUCOM).

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