The Paris Bourse will attempt to save its supports between now and 5:35pm.

The CAC40 began the session down -1.8%... then halved its decline before the US figures published at 2:30pm (the CAC40 climbed back to 7,975).
With 30 minutes to go, the CAC40 is back at -1.5% and flirting with 7,920: we'll need to finish above 7,930 to avoid the risk of a further slide.
The SBF-120 (-1.5% to 5,990) could also "save" the 6,000 mark.

Ditto for the Euro-Stoxx50, down -1.4% to 4,916, which will need to preserve the 4,000 mark.916, which will have to hold on to 4.930.
To better understand this "saloon door" sequence, we need to turn to Wall Street, where this morning's hoped-for rebound attempt has come to nothing: the S&P500 and Nasdaq are down -0.2% in the wake of Tesla (-3.8%, with the stock falling back below the $500 billion "capi" mark).

Stock markets continue to suffer from the sharp rise in bond yields, which accelerated yesterday in response to better-than-expected US retail sales figures.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries, a barometer of market sentiment on the health of the US economy, has risen by a further +2pts to 4.648%, a peak of almost five months, while the 30-year has peaked at 4.800% (4.765% tonight) and the 2-year is close to 5%.

In Europe, the yield on the ten-year German Bund, the benchmark for the eurozone, is up +6pts to 2.49% (2.51% at its peak), our OATs are back up to 3% (+6pts), and Italian BTPs are up +7pts to 3.907%.

Against this backdrop, investors fear that high yields will prevent equities from responding positively to the current corporate earnings season.
The rise in the 30-year yield seems to have hit real estate hard:
the Commerce Department reported a 14.7% plunge in US housing starts in March compared with the previous month, to an annualized rate of 1,321,000, following a 12.7% jump in February.

U.S. building permits - intended to be a precursor of future housing starts - fell by 4.3% to 1,458,000 last month. Finally, housing completions fell by 13.5% to 1,469,000 (no "weather factor" to explain this decline).

US industrial production rose again by 0.4% in March (as in February), with a 3.1% jump in automobile production (vehicles and equipment).

Also according to the Federal Reserve, which publishes these figures, the capacity utilization rate in US industry rose by 0.2 points to 78.4% in March, a level 1.2 points below its long-term average (1972-2023).

In Europe, the ZEW index, which measures the sentiment of investors and financial analysts in Germany, reached a level in April not seen for two years, suggesting that Europe's leading economy is on the way out of its rut.

The Mannheim-based economic institute reports that its investor sentiment indicator rose to 42.9 this month, from 31.7 in March, the highest since March 2022.

The current conditions component, however, improved only slightly by 1.3 points, to -79.2, whereas analysts were anticipating a more pronounced recovery, to around -76.

The ZEW attributes the rise in its confidence index to the recovery of the global economy, with half of those questioned in the survey expecting a rebound in activity in the next six months.
The recent appreciation of the dollar against the euro is also leading survey participants to expect a rebound in German exports in the future, explains the organization.
However, the IMF is more pessimistic about German growth in 2024 (+0.2% instead of +0.5%) and 2025 (+1.3% instead of +1.6%).

China's gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 (versus +5.2% at the end of 2023), according to data published Tuesday by the State Bureau of Statistics (BES), but retail sales fell from +5.5% to +3.3%, and production from +7% to +4.5%.

On the geopolitical front, NBC understands that an Israeli retaliation to Sunday morning's Iranian fire is imminent: this could constitute a major game changer and add a good dose of stress to the markets.

The euro manages to recover 0.1% to $1.0635, gold recovers more than 1% to $2.370, Brent crude oil is little changed at around $90.2, and WTI is stable at around $85.3 on the NYMEX.

In the stock market, financial giants Morgan Stanley and Bank of America published their first-quarter accounts at midday: BoA fell -3.6% following an increase in provisions for credit defaults ($1.3 billion vs. $0.935 billion a year ago), while Morgan Stanley reported higher-than-expected profits, buoyed by its investment banking business.

On the Old Continent, Ericsson this morning reported higher profits for the first three months of the year, despite a contraction in sales over the period.

According to Berenberg's strategists, the current economic uncertainties militate in favor of a "pause" in the equity markets, leading them to favor safer assets such as gold, energy and defensive stocks.

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