Market: an ironclad rebound for the time being
At around 8:15 a.m., the future contract on the February-delivered CAC 40 index was up 41 points at 7952.5, pointing to a green opening.
And that's eight! Yesterday, the Paris market managed another session of gains, ending the session with a 0.7% gain at 7892 points, continuing an upward trend that even Wall Street has reason to envy.
Since its low point on November 27, the CAC has rebounded by almost 11%, while the S&P 500 posted a much more limited rise of around 2%.
After underperforming US stocks last year, and indeed for several years, European equities have been enjoying a comeback in recent weeks, driven by their undemanding valuations.
In reality, European equities are at a clear discount to US equities - the STOXX Europe 600 and S&P 500 are at a 40% discount," points out Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.
This technical rebound has yet to be confirmed, however, by the preliminary PMI indices measuring private-sector activity in France, the UK and the eurozone, expected later this morning.
These figures should confirm what we already know, namely that the eurozone economy is stagnating, that the UK is mired in stagflation, and that the US economy continues to outperform its counterparts by a wide margin", stresses Michael Brown, market strategist at Pepperstone.
The analyst points out, however, that many factors of uncertainty remain, mainly linked to developments in US trade policy, which could derail the current stock market rally.
It's not in anyone's interest to take on too large a position at the moment, knowing that a setback could occur at any time, with the possibility of a Trump tweet sending the market back down," he warns.
Despite these concerns, the New York Stock Exchange finished higher on Thursday, buoyed by a rotation in favor of the most defensive and cyclical stocks, to the detriment of technology.
At the final bell, the Dow Jones index gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% after setting new records, while the Nasdaq nibbled away at 0.2%.
The economic agenda looks relatively quiet today in the United States, although it will be marked by sales of existing homes and the Michigan consumer confidence index.
In terms of results, investors will mainly be following the publications of American Express and Verizon, expected at lunchtime.
In Europe, Ericsson announced this morning that it had posted a "solid end to the year" in 2024, with sales up 2% in Q4 and net income up to SEK 4.9 billion, compared with SEK 3.4 billion a year earlier.
As risk appetite returns to equity markets, bonds are mechanically less attractive, leading them to continue their recent consolidation trend.
The yield on the ten-year German Bund thus climbed two points to 2.52%, while that on the OAT with the same maturity deteriorated by four basis points to 3.30%, giving a France/Germany spread of 78 points.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the ten-year Treasuries rate rose by four points to 4.64%.
The euro confirmed its return above the $1.04 threshold, which it had broken at the end of last year, following yesterday's publication of rising unemployment figures in the United States, calling for Fed action.
Crude oil prices remain on a downward trend, despite yesterday's announcement of a sharp drop of one million barrels in US oil inventories last week.
Brent crude is down 0.1% at $78.2 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.1% at $74.5, the latter heading for losses of over 4% for the week.
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