Stock futures fell on Friday as a rally, driven by artificial technology and in particular Nvidia, cooled and pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq off record highs.

Investors await purchasing managers' surveys, which are expected to show that both services and manufacturing activity eased in June.

So far this week, data has shown that industrial production accelerated in May, while retail sales rose less than expected.

In other recent trading:

Benchmark bond yields fell, after settling at 4.252% on Thursday.

Benchmark German bunds and other European government bonds rose, after provisional PMI data indicated the eurozone's economic recovery slowed in June.

Premarket Movers

Sarepta Therapeutics rose 34% after saying the FDA approved an expansion to the indications for Elevidys, the company's treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Smith & Wesson fell 3.2% after its CFO told analysts on a conference call that the company expects first-quarter sales to be down about 10% "from the prior year quarter in terms of units and dollars as growth in long guns partially offsets a decline in handguns."

Trump Media & Technology was up 2.2%. The stock fell 15% on Thursday and has declined for five straight trading sessions, losing 34% over that span.

Watch For:

Existing Home Sales for May

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

- Nvidia's Success Is the Stock Market's Problem

- Biden Is Pouring Millions Into a State Democrats Haven't Won Since 2008

- Billionaires Pony Up Huge Donations for Trump, Biden



The dollar is likely to stay supported by interest-rate differentials and as concerns ahead of French elections prompt flows into the safe-haven currency, ING said.

Thursday's rate cut by the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England holding rates but stating that for some the decision was 'finely balanced' reinforced the notion that European central banks are "way ahead of the Federal Reserve with rate cuts, a dollar-positive development," ING said, adding that over the coming days the DXY dollar index could rise toward 106.0, from 105.628 currently.

The euro edged lower against the dollar after the disappointing eurozone PMI data.

ING said the European currency risks further weakness ahead of the French election, with potential for "multiple days of trading below $1.07."

Sterling edged lower, shrugging off data showing U.K. retail sales rebounded by 2.9% in May as prospects of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in the coming months weigh on the currency.

ING sees scope for sterling to fall toward $1.25 as an August rate cut looks increasingly possible. Money markets currently only price around a 50% chance of an August rate cut, according to Refinitiv, leaving scope for further adjustment.

ING forecasts three rate cuts this year, versus two priced by the market.


After peaking just shy of 80 basis points last Friday, the highest since 2017, the 10-year French OAT-German Bund yield spread has stabilized at lower levels, having closed at 72.5 basis points on Thursday, with Commerzbank Research saying investors seem to be taking comfort from Marine Le Pen's recent interview as some speculate that buying French government bonds at the height of political uncertainty could pay off again.

In a recent interview with Le Figaro, Le Pen said: "I'm respectful of institutions; I do not call for institutional chaos. There will simply be cohabitation."

Citi Research said the French government bond market looks priced for a hung parliament or majority by the far-right National Rally but with a relatively benign fiscal impact and Emmanuel Macron staying as the President.

"The risk scenario is a more forceful implementation of far-right/left manifesto that could take 10-year OAT-Bund spread to 100bp, with another 30bp widening in the tail event of Macron resigning," Citi said.

The most market friendly, and least likely, scenario might be a tightening toward 55-60bp on a centrist coalition or if National Rally is forced to discard most of its manifesto pledges, Citi said, adding periphery spreads are likely to outperform OATs in all scenarios if Macron stays, but underperform if he resigns.


Oil prices were on track for weekly gains as signs of a tightening market and stronger demand boost sentiment.

"OPEC+ cuts mean that the market should tighten further as we move into the third quarter, suggesting that there is still room to move higher from current levels," ING said.

Further price gains though are capped by uncertainties around the timing and extent of U.S. rate cuts.


Gold futures were higher with the market still waiting for the next price driver from U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy and emerging market central bank trends.

Gold has settled into a clearly-defined range, reflecting this patient stance, though there are traders capitalizing on small moves, Pepperstone said, expecting these levels to hold "until we get a more immediate need to reweight gold allocations higher in the broad portfolio."

The U.S. economy is still humming along nicely and the Fed appears to be in control; for a new trend to develop may take time, Pepperstone said.


Japan Inflation Picks Up, Adding to Hopes for Rate Hikes by BOJ

TOKYO-Japan's consumer inflation picked up in May, adding to market expectations for interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan.

Overall consumer prices in May rose 2.8% compared with the same period a year earlier, due mainly to higher electricity bills, compared with the 2.5% increase in April, government data showed Friday.

Fed's Barkin Says Inflation to Linger as Rate Hikes Take Full Effect

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin sees lingering inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, but said Thursday that today's level of interest rates is sufficient to slow price growth. It will take time, however, with the full impact of higher interest rates yet to hit the real economy.

Barkin is a current voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policymaking body. He has served as president of the Richmond Fed since 2018. The FOMC has held its target for the federal-funds rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023.

Biden Administration Bans U.S. Sales of Kaspersky Software

WASHINGTON-The Biden administration on Thursday said it would ban sales in the U.S. of software built by Russian antivirus vendor Kaspersky Lab, acting on longstanding concerns that the software firm poses a significant national-security threat.

U.S. officials described the ban as a "full prohibition" on selling to U.S. businesses or individuals. Additionally, the administration is adding Kaspersky Lab to a list that limits U.S. suppliers from doing business with the company.

IRS to Reject Billions of Dollars in Covid Employer Tax-Credit Claims

The Internal Revenue Service is planning to deny billions of dollars of what it says are improper claims for a popular pandemic-era tax credit, while starting to gradually pay out some claims that have been sitting at the tax agency for more than nine months.

The IRS, following a long review of the employee retention tax credit, plans to maintain a moratorium on processing claims filed since mid-September 2023. The agency, which had said it hoped to resume significant processing of claims in late spring, announced its plans less than an hour before the summer solstice.



None Scheduled

Economic Calendar (ET):

0830 Apr Retail Sales

0830 May Industrial Product, Raw Materials

Stocks to Watch:

Algoma Steel 4Q EPS C$0.10; 4Q Rev C$620.6M; Expects 1Q Total Steel Shipments of 500,000 to 510,000 Tons

Lassonde Industries Enters Agreement to Acquire Zidian Group, Which Operates Summer Garden Food Manufacturing for $235M; Further $45M May Be Payable Should Certain Targets, Conditions Be Met; Summer Garden Makes a Wide Range of Premium Sauces and Condiments

Expected Major Events for Friday

00:30/JPN: Jun Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI

05:00/JPN: May Steel Production

06:00/UK: May Public sector finances

06:00/UK: May UK monthly retail sales figures

06:45/FRA: Jun Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries)

07:15/FRA: Jun France Flash PMI

07:30/GER: Jun Germany Flash PMI

08:30/UK: 1Q Bank of England statistics on UK banks' external claims

08:30/UK: Jun Flash UK PMI

12:30/CAN: May Industrial product and raw materials price indexes

12:30/CAN: Apr Retail trade

12:30/US: U.S. Weekly Export Sales

13:45/US: Jun US Flash Manufacturing PMI

13:45/US: Jun US Flash Services PMI

14:00/US: May Leading Indicators

14:00/US: May Existing Home Sales

14:30/US: 06/14 EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Friday

Ampio Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMPE) is expected to report for 1Q.

CarMax Inc (KMX) is expected to report $0.94 for 1Q.

Clairvest Group Inc (CVG.T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Emerson Radio Corp (MSN) is expected to report for 4Q.

Factset Research Systems Inc (FDS) is expected to report $3.53 for 3Q.

Golden Matrix Group Inc (GMGI) is expected to report for 2Q.

MGT Capital Investments Inc (MGTI) is expected to report for 1Q.

Mexco Energy Corp (MXC) is expected to report for 4Q.

Pressure BioSciences Inc (PBIO) is expected to report for 1Q.

Royale Energy Inc (ROYL) is expected to report for 1Q.

Tel Instrument Electronics Corp (TIKK) is expected to report for 4Q.

Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.


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06-21-24 0614ET