Wall Street: lighter trading ahead of key data releases
Investors are beginning to take profits following an unprecedented five-week uptrend, which may not have been the most bullish in history, but where the drawdown was the lowest in the 21st century.
After recovering more than 12% from its October 27 low, the S&P500 is now just 5% off its all-time high of early 2022, and the Dow Jones is back to within 1% of its highs of early 2020 or February 2022, with the VIX falling back to 12.60 on 11/30, but now back above 13.
The bond market also seems to be trying to catch its breath after one of its strongest five-week rises since 2009: Thursday and Friday's sessions were euphoric. The 'ten-year' is up to 4.27%, but is still trading at its lowest level since the end of August (4.20%).
Fed boss Jerome Powell said on Friday that it was premature to talk about a rate cut and assured investors that a rate hike remained on the table, but the markets seem to have decoded another message that said 'we will cut rates sooner rather than later'.
Investors are hoping that the 'NFP' to be published next Friday will confirm a slowdown in the pace of job creation, followed by a slight rise in unemployment, which would reinforce hopes of a 'pivot' as early as March 2024.
The 'NFP' will be preceded on Tuesday by the ISM for services, then on Wednesday by the ADP survey of job creation in the private sector, while awaiting the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index due on Friday.
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