The US October PCE inflation figures landed exactly as expected. They're slightly too high - with the core personal consumption expenditures index rising to 2.8% year-on-year in October - which caused a bit of market jitters. However, they align with forecasts. This has eased fears of a rate hold at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 18, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut. This shift has pushed the yield on the 10-year US Treasury below 4.3% and led to a dip in the dollar. These are typical reactions in such scenarios.
The US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, a slight dip from 3.0% in the second quarter. Weekly unemployment claims fell, suggesting a strong labor market.
On the UK corporate front, Dr. Martens reported a swing to a half-year loss, with revenue down 18% to £324.6 million. It plans to slash its dividend by 46% and anticipates cost savings at the top of a £20-25 million range. Meanwhile, Loungers, a café and bar operator, has agreed to a £338.3 million takeover by Fortress Investment Group. Direct Line Insurance turned down a £3.28 billion takeover bid from Aviva, deeming it undervalued.
In France, political tensions over a draft budget have unsettled equity and bond markets. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has threatened to topple the government if her budget demands are not met, potentially causing significant market upheaval. In the UK, consumer confidence remained largely unchanged in November, with slight improvements in personal financial expectations but a dimmer view of the broader economy.
Things to read today:
- What makes a market "seem risky" (Klement on Investing).
- Musk is the right man on the wrong continent (Financial Times).
- How special is the career of cross-border workers (The Conversation).
- The AI journalist who took my old job has just been fired (Wired).
- Buy American to avoid Trump's trade war, says Lagarde (Financial Times).
- The plastics industry's battle for hearts and minds (New York Times).