The Spanish stock index IBEX 35 opened Monday with a slight fall but maintained the level of 11,600 points, in expectation of several macroeconomic events that could influence the next steps of the major central banks.

Monday's session is the first session of the last month of the year and, despite the multiple uncertainties on various fronts - macroeconomic, monetary and geopolitical - the IBEX accumulates an annual increase of 15%, after having already gained 23% in 2023.

Equities have had several days of corrections and slight rises that Bankinter analysts describe as a "stage of bullish weakness".

"After a bullish post-Trump victory period, we enter the last weeks of 2024 which could be rather sideways, giving the year already over."

"But if it were to break in any direction it would more likely be to the upside," these analysts note on their Telegram channel, reasoning that the market has already assumed higher-than-expected rates, the holiday period looks good, and U.S. employment could leave a favorable figure at the end of the week.

In terms of macroeconomic data, November manufacturing PMI and October unemployment rate for the eurozone will be released on Monday, along with October ISM manufacturing and construction spending for October in the US.

Still, traders will be watching the US job openings report --Tuesday--, the ADP employment report --Wednesday-- and the November job creation figure --Friday-- for clues on the Fed's cutting cycle.

For now, investors are still uncertain about the Fed's decision at its December 18 meeting, with markets reflecting a 63% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) cut and a 37% probability of no rate hike.

On this side of the Atlantic, doubts are lower: 74% favor a quarter-percentage-point cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) on December 12 and 26% no change.

According to analysts at Renta 4, uncertainty about the policies of a Trump presidency in the United States puts the ECB in a quagmire, which will also be attentive to the indicators published this week.

"(The ECB) would have to decide whether to support economic growth (accelerate pace of declines) or on the contrary focus on its inflation control objective (maintain the current path or slow the pace)," they stress in their daily note.

At 0802 GMT on Monday, the selective Spanish stock market IBEX 35 fell 51.90 points, or 0.45%, to 11,589.40 points, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of large European stocks fell 0.32%.

In the banking sector, Santander lost 0.95%, BBVA fell 0.98%, Caixabank gave up 0.74%, Sabadell fell 1.01%, Bankinter dropped 0.72%, and Unicaja Banco rose 0.41%.

Among the large non-financial stocks, Telefónica fell 0.19%, Inditex dropped 0.15%, Iberdrola dropped 0.93%, Cellnex fell 0.44%, and the oil company Repsol lost 0.21%.

(Information by Javi West Larrañaga; edited by Tomás Cobos)