* MOEX seen at 3,150 by end-2020, at 3,225 by mid-2021
* RTS seen reaching 1,380 by end-2020 and 1,445 by mid-2021
* cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageId=stock-index-poll poll data
MOSCOW, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Russia's stock market is forecast
to reach all-time highs next year, but the gains will be capped
by geopolitical risks that eclipse concerns about the novel
coronavirus, a Reuters poll of market experts showed.
Russia's MOEX index was among the best global
performers in 2019. After a sell-off in March, it is on the mend
from a double shock caused by a drop in the price of oil, a key
export, and the coronavirus.
Russian stocks are poised for more gains even though new
risks are likely to materialise, according to forecasts from 13
analysts polled in the second half of August.
The MOEX rouble-denominated index is seen recovering to
3,150 by the end of this year, up about 4.0% from around 3,029
on Aug. 25. Year-end forecasts ranged from 2,681 to 3,300.
"With the global COVID recession clearly behind us and a new
economic expansion just started ... the new bull run usually
extends until the next major recession event, which is probably
several years away given the massively expansionary global
fiscal and monetary policy," said Mikhail Kuzin, an analyst at
Kuzin saw the risk of a second round of global shutdowns as
a result of coronavirus as very small.
The November U.S. presidential election is set to take
centre stage for investors in Russian shares, given the
sanctions that the U.S. imposed for Russia's meddling in the
2016 elections, something that Moscow denies.
"The worst-case scenario can occur if new geopolitical
tensions between Russia and the world arise," said Elena
Kozhukhova, an analyst at Veles Capital investment firm.
Domestically, Russian stocks are seen benefiting from the
central bank's decision to cut rates to all-time lows, which has
eroded the attractiveness of bank deposits. Authorities' plans
to tax returns from bank deposits could further turn investors
away from deposits to stocks.
By the middle of 2021, the MOEX is seen reaching 3,225
before hitting a record high of 3,460 by end-2021.
The dollar-based RTS index is forecast to trade at
1,380 points by the end of this year, up about 9.0% from around
1,267 on Aug. 25. Forecasts in the poll ranged from 1,200 to
The RTS is seen climbing further to 1,445 by mid-2021 and to
1,535 by the end of the next year.
(Other stories from the Reuters Q3 global stock markets poll
(Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh; Additional polling by Khushboo
Mittal and Sarmista Sen; editing by Ross Finley, Larry King)