By Kirk Maltais
-- Corn for July delivery fell 0.9% to $4.47 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday in reaction to forecasts of smooth weather for the rest of the planting season.
-- Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.2% to $10.50 1/2 a bushel.
-- Wheat for July delivery rose 0.7% to $5.34 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Photo Finish: Grain futures didn't get much of a boost from a federal trade court's blocking of many of President Trump's tariffs, instead reacting to weather that will help push crop planting to the finish line and allow for a solid start to the summer growing season.
"More rains are on tap next week to aid the bulk of U.S. crops, with a previously feared drought pattern for the corn belt this summer looking like it will fail to materialize," said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. "Crop ratings should improve for most going forward."
Apprehensive Approach: While the Court of International Trade's ruling voids the current, albeit mostly paused, string of tariffs proposed by the Trump administration, it isn't the last word on the situation, meaning grain traders will have to continue their usual course of business until appeals from the Trump administration shake out.
This is why the movement in grain futures Thursday has little to do with the CIT ruling, said Brian Pullam of Linn & Associates, although how dropping tariffs could impact export demand may become a factor moving grain futures going forward.
INSIGHT
Further Volatility Ahead: Even with the CIT's ruling, the trade environment for equities and commodities remains largely rocky and uncertain, said John Higgins of Capital Economics in a note.
Stock markets appeared underwhelmed by the ruling, said Higgins, with the risk premium for Trump's tariff actions already being factored in. He adds that as long as the validity of tariffs is being questioned by traders, then the likelihood of the Federal Reserve aggressively lowering interest rates remains scant. Trade deals already brokered between the U.S. and other partners are also in question.
Share the Wealth: The USDA released $1 billion through its congressionally mandated Emergency Livestock Relief Program, designed to support livestock producers impacted by grazing losses because of drought and wildfires in 2023 and 2024. The program was originally authorized by the American Relief Act, passed earlier this year. The Act allotted $10 billion to agricultural producers in general affected by environmental disaster, with $7.7 billion so far distributed, the USDA said.
The U.S. Drought Monitor said Thursday that drought conditions are easing on the western Plains, while the eastern Corn Belt keeps moist.
Positive for Demand: Average daily ethanol production continues to trend higher, with the EIA reporting higher production along with reduced inventories.
Average daily ethanol production for the week ended May 23 was 1.056 million barrels a day, the EIA said. That is up 20,000 barrels a day from the previous week, and within estimates from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week.
Inventories fell from the previous week, dropping 663,000 barrels to 24.28 million barrels, the lower end of analyst estimates, with forecasts between 24 million barrels and 25.04 million barrels.
AHEAD
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.
-- The USDA is due to release its monthly agricultural prices report at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.
-- The CFTC is scheduled to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-29-25 1537ET
