Nippon Steel Finalizes Purchase of U.S. Steel -2-

0920 ET - Wide swings in crude oil futures have slowed as the market eyes the Israel-Iran conflict. "The complex is taking a pause given little overnight news out of the Mideast but remains on edge as it awaits upcoming developments," says Ritterbusch and Associates in a note. The firm says a big factor is whether the U.S. will be directly involved, which may increase the chance of oil supply chain interruptions. Crude oil futures are up 0.4%, while Brent crude is up 0.3%. ([e-mail])

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Natural Gas Pushes Higher on Heat Wave -- Market Talk

0911 ET - Heat arriving across the U.S. following an extensive period of rain in many areas continues to boost natural gas futures, with the most-active contract up 1.6% to $3.914 per mmBtu. Analysts with EBW AnalyticsGroup say that natural gas storage is anticipated to reach "a short-term peak" before retreating as July begins. This may be enough to send natural gas futures up to $4 per mmBtu, says the firm. That would close in on the year-high set in March, when natural gas futures topped out near $4.50 per mmBtu. If natural gas futures finish higher today, it'll be the fourth consecutive session of gains. ([e-mail])

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Tullow Oil's Large Debt Is Too Much for Potential Buyers to Take On -- Market Talk

1138 GMT - The collapse of the purported deal between Tullow Oil and Meren Energy is no surprise, Panmure Liberum's Ashley Kelty writes. Tullow has $1.3 billion in debt that needs refinancing next year which is the most likely reason talks collapsed, he says. At current oil prices, the free cash flow generated by Tullow's assets isn't enough for potential acquirers to justify taking on the debt, he writes. Having raised the prospect of a liquidity squeeze next year, the London-listed oil company will probably be forced to dispose of more assets, he adds. Shares trade down 17% at 17.72 pence. ([e-mail])

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Silver's Rally Catches Up to Gold on Alternative Safe-Haven Demand -- Market Talk

1119 GMT - Silver prices rise, catching up with gold's year-to-date rally as investors seek alternative safe-haven assets. Silver New York spot prices are up 2.2% at $37.13 a troy ounce. Prices have risen 28.5% since the start of 2025. The U.S. dollar index continues to be at multiyear lows, with traders instead boosting exposure to silver alongside the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc amid concerns over the Trump administration, SP Angel analysts say in a note. The dollar could rally near term after the sustained selloff, the analysts say. However, wider geopolitical worries are pushing countries to diversify their foreign reserves away from the dollar, analysts write. This is benefiting precious metals long term, they say. Gold New York spot prices are up 0.1% at $3,388.46 a troy ounce, and have risen 29% year to date. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Higher, Tracking Soybean Oil -- Market Talk

1020 GMT - Palm oil rose during the Asian session. Gains in rival soybean oil likely supported prices, with higher-than-expected U.S. biofuel blending targets continuing to drive market sentiment, analysts at Kenanga Futures write in a note. Conflicts in the Middle East and worries about the U.S.'s potential involvement continue to keep energy markets elevated, they add. The analysts peg support and resistance levels for the September futures contract at 4,015 ringgit a ton and 4,150 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery ended 37 ringgit higher at 4,101 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Geopolitical Risk Premium Driving Oil Prices Likely Temporary

0913 GMT - The geopolitical risk premium that is keeping oil prices elevated will likely last weeks rather than months, says Norbert Rücker of Julius Baer. The situation surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict is fluid, but it is also important to examine what hasn't happened so far, Rücker says. Export-related energy infrastructure remains intact around the Persian Gulf, and the U.S. and other allies haven't been pulled into the conflict yet, he says. Military action seems carefully considered given the circumstances, and "this lack of escalation so far explains the surprisingly unemotional oil price reaction." Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 1.2% lower at $73.91/bbl; front-month Brent futures fall 1.3% to $75.49/bbl. ([e-mail])

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European Gas Price Rises on Strait of Hormuz Supply Concerns -- Market Talk

0802 GMT - European natural-gas prices continue to climb. Traders are closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz amid fears of potential supply disruptions to global flows. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract rises 1.2% to 39.78 euros a megawatt hour, bringing weekly gains to nearly 11%. Qatar--one of the world's top LNG exporters--asked LNG vessels to wait outside the Strait of Hormuz until they were ready to load due to rising tensions in the region, according to a Bloomberg report. "While shipments are not expected to be delayed, it's enough to keep the market nervous," analysts at ANZ Research say. The waterway handles around 20% of global LNG trade. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Fluctuate Ahead of Fed Meeting -- Market Talk

0758 GMT - Gold futures trade in a narrow range as investors turn cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday. Futures are down 0.1% at $3,402.0 a troy ounce, though they remain up 1.75% on week amid safe-haven demand. The Fed isn't likely to cut interest rates at this meeting, though the tone will be carefully scrutinized for clues on the size and scope of potential rate cuts in the near term. Tepid U.S. economic reports on retail sales, housing and industrial output have improved the case for cutting rates later this year, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Gold investors are also continuing to monitor risk escalation in the Middle East, ANZ adds. ([e-mail])

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Oil Could Hit $120 if Strait of Hormuz Flows Are Disrupted, ING Says

0755 GMT - The oil market's biggest fear is the Strait of Hormuz shutting down, which would affect oil flows from the Persian Gulf, ING commodities strategists write in a note. Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves via this chokepoint. A significant disruption to oil flows would be sufficient to push prices to $120/bbl, they say. In this case, OPEC's spare capacity would not help the market as most of it is located in the Persian Gulf, they forecast. Under such a scenario, governments may have to tap their strategic petroleum reserves, though that would only be a temporary fix, ING says. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.55% lower at $74.43/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.7% lower at $75.90/bbl. ([e-mail])

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Base Metal Prices Mixed as Traders Await Catalysts -- Market Talk

0754 GMT - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper up 0.4% at $9,708.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum flat at $2,546.50 a ton. The wider metals complex is struggling to establish a clear direction as low volatility and rangebound conditions continue to dominate price action, Sucden Financial analysts say in a note. Aluminum, however, extended its recent recovery to sit up 2.1% on week, showing modest bullish momentum, Sucden says. Copper, on the other hand, edged lower in the prior session to just beneath the near-term resistance point, and sits down 0.1% on week, the analysts write. Overall, the absence of strong trading flows from speculative funds and little macroeconomic conviction continue to limit metals' momentum, Sucden says. ([e-mail])

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Tullow Oil's Debt Refinancing Likely an Obstacle to Meren Merger -- Market Talk

0753 GMT - Tullow Oil's continuing debt-refinancing plans were likely an obstacle to any merger with Meren Energy, Shore Capital's James Hosie writes. This follows a report from Sky News that the London-listed oil company had been in talks with Canada's Meren as recently as this month. However, discussions between the two Africa-focused oil companies have stopped, the report said. There is some logic to a combination between the two companies, Hosie writes. Oil price volatility and challenges associated with obtaining government and regulatory approvals in Ghana make any deal difficult, he adds. The talks are an indication that peers see value in Tullow's core Ghanaian production assets, the analyst says. Tullow's shares trade down 6.5% at 20 pence. ([e-mail])

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Oil Eases as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions, Await Fed Projections

0750 GMT - Oil prices slip as the conflict between Israel and Iran enters its sixth day. Brent crude and WTI are both 0.6% lower to $75.99 and $72.80 a barrel, respectively. "While it's hard to fight the current risk premium on crude, higher prices will need to be backed by evidence of supply disruption," ING's Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky say. Key energy infrastructure and crude flows have so far been spared. However, the market now fears a deeper U.S. military involvement and any potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump is considering a range of options including a potential U.S. strike against Iran. Trump called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" on Tuesday. Meanwhile, traders await the Fed's interest-rate decision and updated projections later on Wednesday. ([e-mail])

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Oil Geopolitical Risk Premium Likely to Be Contained

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06-18-25 1230ET