Trump's Oil and Gas Donors Don't Really Want to 'Drill, Baby, Drill' -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 0.85% to $73.60 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 1.4% to EUR47.63 a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are up 1% to $2,700.70 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.6% at $8,969.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Trump's Oil and Gas Donors Don't Really Want to 'Drill, Baby, Drill'

Donald Trump wants oil companies to "drill, baby, drill" on the first day of his presidency, but his fossil-fuel benefactors have a different agenda.

Many of the tycoons who backed the Republican's victorious campaign say what they need help with is shoring up demand for their products-not pumping more fossil fuels, which they have little incentive to do.

They are pushing for policies that would lock in fossil-fuel use, such as easier permitting for pipelines and terminals to shuttle fossil fuels to new markets. They also favor eliminating Biden administration policies meant to put more electric vehicles on the road.

Under President Biden, shale companies produced record amounts of oil and natural gas as crude prices rebounded from the pandemic's depths and then soared after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But the industry is also confronting the early stages of a long-term shift away from fossil fuels, as well as concerns that gasoline consumption has peaked in the U.S.

OTHER STORIES:

A Miami Financier Is Quietly Trying to Buy Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline

An American investor with a history of dealmaking in Russia has asked the U.S. government to allow him to bid on the sabotaged Nord Stream Pipeline 2 if it comes up for auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding.

Stephen P. Lynch spent two decades doing business in Moscow and now wants to buy the natural-gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany. He has argued to U.S. officials and lawmakers that American ownership of the pipeline would provide leverage in any peace negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine and serve U.S. long-term interests.

"The bottom line is this: This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era," Lynch said in a rare interview.

Lynch, who lives in Miami and was a large contributor to Donald Trump's presidential campaign, has told people "he wants to be the richest guy you've never heard of," but his audacious plan would thrust the former Peace Corps volunteer into public view.

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Texas Pacific Land Shares Hit All-Time High After Addition to S&P 500

Shares of Texas Pacific Land touched an all-time high in post-market trading after it was disclosed the company will join the S&P 500 index.

The company will replace Marathon Oil, which is being acquired by ConocoPhillips, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Thursday.

The stock rose 5.71% to $1,602.01 per share after reaching a record high of $1,526.04 in Thursday's market session.

MARKET TALKS:

Base Metal Prices Slide as Strong Dollar Puts Off International Buyers -- Market Talk

1300 GMT - Base metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.85% at $8,947 a metric ton and LME three month aluminum down 0.9% at $2,610 a ton. Industrial metals have pared recent gains as a stronger U.S. dollar has outweighed any optimism for China stimulus, SP Angel analysts say in a note. The greenback has soared since President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections early November. Copper's latest slide follows a sell-off in China, with the yuan's struggle against the dollar limiting Chinese buyers in international markets, SP Angel writes. That said, there are hints of market optimism for fresh stimulus announcements at the country's upcoming December policy meeting, after previous measures fell short of expectations, SP Angel adds.([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Rise, Shrugging Off Stronger Dollar on Safe-haven Demand -- Market Talk

1123 GMT - Gold futures rise, as safe-haven demand outweighs a stronger U.S. dollar. Futures are up 1.25% at $2,708.80 a troy ounce. The precious metal has returned to growth after nearly three weeks of declines, reversing last week's drop entirely, says FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich. The growing tensions around the Russia-Ukraine war have bought gold firmly back into investor focus, alongside pressure in equity markets. Gold found buyers shortly after falling below the 50-day moving price average. The ability to rise further would be an important price signal, Kuptsikevich says in a note. The extent of gold's downward correction in early November was ultimately shallow, and if gold manages to regain prior highs soon, the long-term target will be in the $3,400 an ounce area, he adds. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower Amid Profit-Taking, Weaker Exports -- Market Talk

1010 GMT - Palm-oil prices ended lower amid intense profit-taking, weaker export fundamentals and losses in related vegetable oils, says Sathia Varqa, senior analyst at Palm Oil Analytics. Market sentiment shifted sharply this week after building up large gains since early October, he adds. Lower soybean oil prices further weighed on palm-oil prices today, says David Ng, proprietary trader at Iceberg X. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for February delivery fell MYR132 to MYR4,640 a ton. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Brent Seen Around $80 a Barrel in 2024, Goldman Says -- Market Talk

0951 GMT - Goldman Sachs says it forecasts Brent crude to average roughly $80 barrels a day this year despite elevated geopolitical uncertainties and a modest supply deficit. The recent decline to the low-to-mid $70s reflects market confidence in a large surplus next year due to solid growth from the Americas and OPEC+'s planned production increases, according to the U.S. bank. Next year, Brent is estimated at $76 a barrel on average, but could rise to the mid-$80s in the first half if Iran supply drops by 1 million barrels a day due to stricter sanctions enforcement. In the medium term, price risks are instead skewed to the downside due to high spare capacity and potentially higher U.S. tariffs hurting demand, Goldman says. ([e-mail])

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Europe's Gas Price Boosted by Supply Risks -- Market Talk

0910 GMT - European natural-gas prices continue to hover around this year's highs as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, threatening supplies. The U.S. on Thursday sanctioned Gazprombank--the lender tied to Russia's state-controlled gas export giant--to further restrict Moscow's access to the international financial system. "The sanctions increase the risk of Russian natural gas being cut off to the handful of central European nations still receiving supplies via pipelines," ANZ Research analysts say. The move follows Gazprom's halt of supplies to OMV after the Austrian company said it withheld payments for the gas to offset an arbitration award. Meanwhile, colder temperatures have been draining EU gas storage levels faster, further supporting prices. In early European trade, the benchmark Dutch TTF trades 0.7% higher at 48.64 euros a megawatt hours. ([e-mail])

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Metal Prices Fall With Trump Administration Set to Add More Downside Risk -- Market Talk

0907 GMT - Base metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.3% at $8,996 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.5% at $2,619 a ton. Industrial metals have struggled in the wake of the U.S. elections and the rising dollar, while disappointments over the strength of Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed to the downside, BMI analysts say in a note. Copper sits down 6.4% on month, while aluminum is down 0.6% on month. The greenback had pushed higher on the back of the potential for higher inflation under the Trump presidency alongside lower Federal Reserve interest rate-cut expectations, BMI says. Looking ahead, Trump's victory presents a downside risk to base metal prices given rising expectations of a stronger-for-longer U.S. dollar, a headwind for base metals, BMI adds. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Rise as Investors Seek Out Safe-Haven Assets -- Market Talk

0906 GMT - Gold futures rise, reaching their highest point since the U.S. presidential election sparked a selloff. Futures rise 1% to $2,700.90 a troy ounce, surpassing the $2,700 mark for the first time since Trump's victory ignited a dollar rally and suppressed gold demand. Gold's gains reflect safe-haven demand as market concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensify. The yellow metal has risen 5.1% over the week to date. On Thursday, Russia's Vladimir Putin said the country launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine for the first time, and warned the West against further escalation. While a stronger dollar and reduced U.S. interest-rate cut expectations are keeping pressure on gold, geopolitical factors are back in the driving seat for gold prices for now, market watchers say. ([e-mail])

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Oil Headed for Weekly Gains on Russia-Ukraine Escalation Fears -- Market Talk

0842 GMT - Oil prices are on track for weekly gains of more than 5% as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep energy markets on edge. In early European trade, Brent crude and WTI are both up 0.6% at $74.66 and $70.53 a barrel, respectively. Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads at Ukraine for the first time on Thursday, warning against further escalation after Kyiv used long-range Western arms this week. "The exchange indicates the war has entered a new phase, raising concerns around disruptions to supply," ANZ Research analysts say in a note to clients. Prices are also supported by a Reuters report that OPEC+ might keep output cuts in place for longer due to weak demand, as well as fresh Chinese measures to boost trade. ([e-mail])

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Copper Gains as Market Steadies -- Market Talk

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11-22-24 0838ET