Sept 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a seven-week high on Thursday on a decline in output,
forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected and the expiration of the lower priced October contract.
    That increase came despite a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build last week and forecasts for milder weather and less
demand next week than previously expected.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during
the week ended Sept. 22.
    That was slightly bigger than the 88-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 103 bcf in
the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 84 bcf.
    Analysts said the storage build was bigger than usual for this time of year because mild weather last week kept both heating
and cooling demand low.
    On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.6
cents, or 1.6%, from where it closed on Wednesday to settle at $2.945 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest
since Aug. 9.
        That put the front-month up about 7% from where the October contract closed on Wednesday since November futures were
trading much higher.
    It also put the contract up for a fifth day in a row for the first time since early August 2023 and over the 200-day moving
average for the first time since late November 2022. The 200-day moving average has been a key level of technical resistance.
    
    SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states slid to 102.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far
in September, down from a record 102.3 bcfd in August.
    Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through Oct. 6 before turning
near-normal from Oct. 7-13.
    Analysts noted that above-normal temperatures in early October were still relatively mild, with averages expected to be around
72 degrees Fahrenheit (22.2 Celsius) versus a normal of 69 F for that time of year.
    With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 95.6 bcfd this week to 95.1
bcfd next week as power generators burn less gas to produce electricity for air conditioning.
    The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
    Pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.2 bcfd so far in September, up from a record 7.1 bcfd in August, according
to LSEG data.
    Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.6 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.3 bcfd in
August. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April.
    On a daily basis, however, feedgas was on track to hold around 12.1 bcfd for a second day in a row on Thursday after rising
from a four-week low of 11.5 bcfd on Tuesday.
    Tuesday's low was due to ongoing maintenance at Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point in Maryland and reductions at
other plants, including Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.
    Cove Point shut for about two weeks of maintenance on Sept. 20.
        
                                                                   Week ended   Week ended    Year ago     Five-year         
                                                                     Sep 22       Sep 15      Sep 122       average    
                                                                     Actual       Actual                    Sep 22     
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):                              90           64           103          84             
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):                                  3,359        3,269        2,962        3,170           
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average                             6.0%         5.9%                                      
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)                        Current Day   Prior Day   This Month   Prior Year    Five Year
                                                                                              Last Year     Average      Average
                                                                                                             2022      (2017-2021)
 Henry Hub                                                            2.90         2.90         7.76         6.54         2.89
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                                        12.80        12.14        57.90        40.50        7.49
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                                             14.60        14.65        46.99        34.11        8.95
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                                                               
 Two-Week Total Forecast                                           Current Day   Prior Day   Prior Year     10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                                             Norm         Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                                         45           33           80           63           83
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                                         90           105          61           85           68
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                                         135          138          141          148          151
                                                                                                                             
 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                                                            
                                                                   Prior Week     Current     Next Week    This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                   Week                    Last Year   Average For
                                                                                                                          Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                                                               
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                                            101.9        101.4        101.3         99.6         92.6
 U.S. Imports from Canada                                                  6.6          6.8          6.7          8.7          7.8
 U.S. LNG Imports                                                          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 Total U.S. Supply                                                       108.5        108.2        108.0        107.0        100.4
                                                                                                                                  
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)                                                                                                               
 U.S. Exports to Canada                                                    2.0          1.7          1.7          1.9          2.4
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                                                    6.9          7.2          7.2          6.2          5.6
 U.S. LNG Exports                                                         13.0         12.0         12.4         12.0          6.5
 U.S. Commercial                                                           4.8          4.9          4.9          4.9          4.9
 U.S. Residential                                                          3.9          4.1          4.1          5.4          3.9
 U.S. Power Plant                                                         35.9         37.0         36.1         32.2         34.9
 U.S. Industrial                                                          21.5         21.5         21.5         21.6         21.5
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                                           5.0          5.0          5.0          5.0          5.0
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                                                    1.9          2.0          2.0          1.9          2.2
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                                         0.1          0.1          0.1          0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                                                   73.2         74.6         73.8         71.1         72.5
 Total U.S. Demand                                                        95.1         95.6         95.1         91.2         87.0
                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                       
 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam    Current Day  Prior Day       2022      2021         2020      
                                                                   % of Normal  % of Normal  % of Normal  % of Normal  % of Normal
                                                                    Forecast     Forecast      Actual       Actual       Actual
 Apr-Sep                                                               83           83           107          81           103
 Jan-Jul                                                               77           77           102          79           98
 Oct-Sep                                                               76           76           103          81           95
                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                        
 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA                                                                               
                                                                   Week ended   Week ended   Week ended   Week ended   Week ended
                                                                     Sep 29       Sep 22       Sep 15        Sep 8       Sep 1 
 Wind                                                                   7            8            5            9            6
 Solar                                                                  4            4            4            4            4
 Hydro                                                                  5            5            5            5            6
 Other                                                                  2            2            2            2            2
 Petroleum                                                              0            0            0            0            0
 Natural Gas                                                           44           43           46           44           45
 Coal                                                                  17           17           18           19           19
 Nuclear                                                               20           20           19           17           18
                                                                                                                             
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                                                          
 Hub                                                               Current Day   Prior Day                                   
 Henry Hub                                                   2.72         2.55                                       
 Transco Z6 New York                                        1.26         1.35                                       
 PG&E Citygate                                             3.23         3.90                                       
 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)                         1.29         1.28                                       
 Chicago Citygate                                           2.27         2.22                                       
 Algonquin Citygate                                         1.50         1.57                                       
 SoCal Citygate                                           2.92         3.17                                       
 Waha Hub                                                 2.00         1.88                                       
 AECO                                                     1.69         1.75                                       
                                                                                                                                  
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                                                             
 Hub                                                               Current Day                                                    
 New England                                             29.50        26.00                                       
 PJM West                                                40.50        36.00                                       
 Ercot North                                             40.75       123.25                                       
 Mid C                                                   50.20        54.25                                       
 Palo Verde                                              33.00        36.00                                       
 SP-15                                                   30.00        33.25                                       
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)