By Scott DiSavino
       June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 7% to a two-week high in volatile trade on Wednesday on forecasts for
mostly hotter than normal weather over the next two weeks and a decline in daily gas output.
    So far this week, prices have jumped 7% on Monday, fell 6% on Tuesday and jumped 7% again on Wednesday.
        Analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics blamed part of that price volatility on forecasts calling for the weather
to go from hotter than normal this week to hot in the West and cool in the East next week, before switching to hotter than normal
across the entire country in two weeks.
  
        "Near-term gas prices are navigating this outlook with volatility likely to extend, as the July contract seeks a new
trading range after the May short squeeze," analysts at EBW Analytics said in a note. "The outlook for the back half of June is
bullish."
  
        Front-month gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.1 cents, or 6.6%, to settle
at $2.757 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since May 22.
  
        The prices increases seen so far this week occurred despite the tremendous oversupply of gas still in U.S. storage.
Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 25% above normal for this time of year.
    Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, the same as in May,
according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
    On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by about 2.1 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary five-week low
of 96.7 bcfd on Wednesday. That output, however, was up about 0.2 bcfd from a 15-week low of 96.5 bcfd on May 1.
    Analysts said the increase since May 1 was a sign output was rising due to a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May.
Output hit a six-week high of 99.5 bcfd on May 24.
    Overall, U.S. gas production is still down around 9% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and
Chesapeake Energy, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities when prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February
and March.
    EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with
Southwestern Energy.
    Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through June 20 except for some
near-normal days in the June 9-11 period.
        
                                                                   Week ended   Week ended    Year ago     Five-year         
                                                                     May 31       May 24       May 31       average         
                                                                    Forecast      Actual                    May 31     
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):                             +90           +84         +105         +103           
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):                                 2,885         2,795        2,520        2,312          
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average                            24.8%         26.5%                                     
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)                       Current Day    Prior Day   This Month   Prior Year    Five-Year
                                                                                              Last Year     Average      Average
                                                                                                             2023      (2018-2022)
 Henry Hub                                                            2.64         2.59         2.47         2.66         3.60
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                                       10.83         10.90        10.32        13.04        14.39
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                                            11.99         12.05        10.61        14.39        14.31
                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                             
 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                                                               
 Two-Week Total Forecast                                          Current Day    Prior Day   Prior Year     10-Year      30-Year
                                                                                                             Norm         Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                                         10           10           18           18           18
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                                        176           176          119          143          144
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                                        186           186          137          161          162
                                                                                                                             
 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                                                            
                                                                   Prior Week     Current     Next Week    This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                   Week                    Last Year   (2019-2023)
                                                                                                                       Average For
                                                                                                                          Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                                                               
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                                             99.1         98.2         98.6        103.1         94.7
 U.S. Imports from Canada                                                  7.0          7.3          7.1          7.9          7.8
 U.S. LNG Imports                                                          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0          0.0
 Total U.S. Supply                                                       106.1        105.5        105.6        111.0        112.5
                                                                                                                                  
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)                                                                                                               
 U.S. Exports to Canada                                                    1.8          1.9          1.9          2.1          2.3
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                                                    7.2          6.3          7.0          6.6          6.0
 U.S. LNG Exports                                                         13.1         13.1         12.8         11.8          8.5
 U.S. Commercial                                                           4.7          4.5          4.5          4.5          4.8
 U.S. Residential                                                          4.1          3.8          3.8          3.8          4.3
 U.S. Power Plant                                                         33.6         35.5         36.1         38.1         36.3
 U.S. Industrial                                                          21.6         21.6         21.6         21.2         21.3
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                                           4.9          4.9          4.9          4.9          4.9
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                                                    1.9          1.9          1.9          1.9          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                                         0.1          0.1          0.1          0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                                                   70.9         72.3         72.9         74.5         73.6
 Total U.S. Demand                                                        93.0         93.6         94.7         95.0         90.4
                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                       
 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam   Current Day   Prior Day       2023      2022         2021      
                                                                  % of Normal   % of Normal  % of Normal  % of Normal  % of Normal
                                                                    Forecast     Forecast      Actual       Actual       Actual
 Apr-Sep                                                               77           77           83           107          81
 Jan-Jul                                                               77           77           77           102          79
 Oct-Sep                                                               79           79           76           103          81
                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                        
 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA                                                                               
                                                                   Week ended   Week ended   Week ended   Week ended   Week ended
                                                                     Jun 7        May 31       May 24       May 17       May 10
 Wind                                                                  11           11           13           10           13
 Solar                                                                 6             6            6            6            6
 Hydro                                                                 7             7            7            8            7
 Other                                                                 1             1            1            1            1
 Petroleum                                                             0             0            0            0            0
 Natural Gas                                                           39           40           38           40           41
 Coal                                                                  14           14           14           14           14
 Nuclear                                                               21           20           19           20           19
                                                                                                                             
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                                                          
 Hub                                                              Current Day    Prior Day                                   
 Henry Hub                                                   2.58         2.55                                       
 Transco Z6 New York                                        1.55         1.54                                       
 PG&E Citygate                                             2.15         1.89                                       
 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)                         1.44         1.42                                       
 Chicago Citygate                                           1.65         1.52                                       
 Algonquin Citygate                                         1.61         1.62                                       
 SoCal Citygate                                           1.64         1.43                                       
 Waha Hub                                                 0.78         1.52                                       
 AECO                                                     0.80         0.85                                       
                                                                                                                                  
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                                                             
 Hub                                                              Current Day    Prior Day                                        
 New England                                             30.75        28.00                                       
 PJM West                                                40.50        47.00                                       
 Ercot North                                             45.00        33.50                                       
 Mid C                                                   30.39        28.36                                       
 Palo Verde                                              29.25        22.25                                       
 SP-15                                                   14.75        14.25                                       
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)