OPEC Signals Cautious Optimism on Trade, Holds Oil Demand Forecast -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 0.9% at $66.04 a barrel

--European benchmark gas is down 2.7% to 34.78 euros a megawatt-hour

--Gold futures are down 1.8% to $3,189 a troy ounce

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.2% at $9,601 a metric ton

TOP STORY:

OPEC Signals Cautious Optimism on Trade, Holds Oil Demand Forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its economic growth outlook but struck a cautiously optimistic tone on trade developments, keeping its oil demand forecast steady as it prepares to accelerate production.

"Trade negotiations over the past two months…have shown a potential pathway of de-escalation, supporting the assumption that major trading partners will succeed in achieving lower tariff rates," the Vienna-based cartel said.

The global economy is now expected to grow 2.9% this year, down from 3% previously, while next year's projections remain unchanged at 3.1%. The group said global uncertainty should ease if the U.S. secures deals with key trade allies, noting potential agreements with partners like the EU, Japan and South Korea could materialize in the coming months.

OTHER STORIES:

Prime Minister Carney Says Canada Can Emerge As Energy Superpower

OTTAWA-Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday he's willing to amend federal rules that may pose headwinds toward getting energy projects built and capitalize on the country's abundance of natural resources.

Carney reiterated his commitment to help build a west-to-east crude-carrying pipeline-so long as there is a nationwide consensus-and he's looking to position the country as an energy superpower that includes, but isn't limited to, oil and gas production.

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Woodside Suggests Aramco Could Join Louisiana LNG Project

SYDNEY- Woodside Energy floated the possibility of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco, buying a stake in its newly approved Louisiana LNG project after signing a collaboration agreement with the giant producer.

Woodside said the nonbinding agreement with Aramco, signed in Riyadh at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, paves the way for both companies to explore global opportunities. It said those opportunities include Aramco's potential acquisition of an equity interest in Louisiana LNG and supply of liquefied natural gas from the $17.5 billion project.

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Average U.S. Ethanol Production Finds 8-Month Low

Average daily production of ethanol in the U.S. has dipped below the 1 million barrels a day mark for the first time since last year, the Energy Information Administration said.

In its latest weekly report published Wednesday, the EIA said that average daily production of ethanol for the week ended May 9 was 993,000 barrels a day. That's the first time since the week of Sep. 20 2024 that average daily production fell below 1 million barrels a day.

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Boralex Earnings Squeezed by Lower Wind Generation in France

Boralex's earnings fell in the first three months of the year as the Canadian renewable energy producer's production was dented by unfavorable winds in France.

The company's earnings fell to 41 million Canadian dollars ($29.4 million), or C$0.29 a share, from C$73 million, or C$0.53, a year earlier.

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U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Rise Unexpectedly

U.S. crude oil inventories posted an unexpected build last week, while product stocks fell amid higher demand, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ended May 9, and were about 6% below the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would fall by 1.8 million barrels.

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TXO Partners Shares Retreat After $175 Million Offering Prices

TXO Partners' shares dropped after the energy company priced an equity raising aimed at raising up to $175 million to help fund the acquisition of producing assets in Montana and North Dakota.

In early trading, the shares were 14% lower at $15.24. The stock is now down 9.5% so far this year, and has fallen 26% over the last 12 months.

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Pembina Pipeline Gets Approval for Renewed Share Buyback Program

Pembina Pipeline has the go ahead from the Toronto Stock Exchange to buy back up to 5% of its issued and outstanding shares.

The Canadian oil and gas pipeline operator said Wednesday the exchange approved the renewal of a normal course issuer bid for up to 29 million of its shares, which would be carrier out through the TSX, New York Stock Exchange or alternative Canadian trading system over a 12-month period ended May 15, 2026.

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Adnoc Gas to Join MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Adnoc Gas said it will join the MSCI Emerging Markets Index next month having met the free float criteria after its parent company reduced its shareholding.

The state-owned oil company said Wednesday that it expects to be included in the index from June 2.

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Treasury Department Sanctions More Firms Over Iranian Oil

The U.S. Treasury Department said it is sanctioning close to two dozen firms involved in the Iranian oil trade, including front companies and others that take measures to camouflage sanctioned Iranian oil.

Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and its main commercial affiliate, Sepehr Energy, "continue to establish front companies and rely on buyers and facilitators to enable their sanctioned oil trade," Treasury said Tuesday in a release. "Many of the entities involved in Sepehr Energy's oil shipments are part of an elaborate system of oil smuggling and money laundering, directly controlled by or acting on behalf of Sepehr Energy."

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South32 Scans for Deals Amid Market Tumult -- Interview

PERTH, Australia--South32 is keen to buy another mine, and its chief executive reckons current market volatility might create some opportunities to do so.

The miner has been reshaping its business in recent years to focus on commodities that it expects will be critical for the transition to a low-carbon economy. The Australia-based company has jettisoned coal mines and is investing in metals assets in the U.S. and Chile, but CEO Graham Kerr said South32 would like to have an additional operating asset.

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Nucor Halts Some Production Operations After Cyberattack

Nucor has been hit by a cyberattack that has affected some of the steelmaker's operations.

Nucor on Wednesday said it recently identified a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to certain information-technology systems the Charlotte, N.C., company uses.

MARKET TALKS:

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Turn Lower -- Market Talk

0958 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower as shoulder-season demand remains subdued, with Texas heat offset by pleasant temperatures across much of the rest of the country and the market focused on a string of large storage builds. "A triple-digit storage surplus to five-year norms is probable by June," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. But as summer heat lifts power-sector demand, LNG rises, and production trends sideways, "the contours of the long-term bullish thesis of rising demand set against insufficient supply growth may begin to emerge," he says. Nymex natural gas is off 3.8% at $3.507/mmBtu. ([e-mail])

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Oil Futures Pull Back After String of Gains -- Market Talk

0927 ET - Crude futures are lower after four straight sessions of gains in which tariff optimism played a role. Oil markets have underperformed equities, which appear to be putting trade worries behind them, in part as oil markets have the additional worry of OPEC+ supply increases, Callum Macpherson of Investec says in a note. "Any souring in market views on trade discussions could challenge the recent rally," he adds. Analysts note as bearish the API's report of a 4.3 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks as the market awaits EIA data, and OPEC keeps its demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels a day and 1.28 million b/d, respectively. WTI is off 1% at $63.03 a barrel, and Brent is off 0.9% at $66.02 a barrel. ([e-mail])

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Oil Falls on Trade Uncertainty, U.S. Weekly Inventory Prospects -- Market Talk

1228 GMT - Oil prices extend losses in afternoon trade as lingering uncertainties around global trade negotiations and a projected build in U.S. crude stockpiles weigh on sentiment. Brent crude falls 1.1% to $65.88 a barrel, while WTI is down 1.2% to $62.92 a barrel. Prices climbed in the previous trading session, supported by a significant de-escalation between the U.S. and China, a cooler-than-expected inflation report and fresh sanctions on Iranian oil. "Despite this boost, markets remained cautious," analysts at IG say. Meanwhile, OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged as it prepares to accelerate output hikes for a second straight month in June, and lowered supply growth estimates from countries outside of the OPEC+ group. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Prices Close Higher, Tracking Gains in Soybean Oil Market -- Market Talk

1012 GMT - Palm oil prices ended higher, tracking gains in the soybean oil market, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. That said, gains are limited by expectations of rising output and stock levels in the country, he added. Crude palm oil futures are likely to find support at 3,850 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 3,950 ringgit a ton, Ng said. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery rose 32 ringgit to 3,925 ringgit/ton. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Base Metal Prices Rise as Possible Tariff Drives Copper Imports -- Market Talk

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05-14-25 1156ET