Oil Fluctuates as Israel-Iran Conflict Fuels -2-

1022 ET - U.S. corn acreage is expected to move higher in 2025, says S&P Global Commodity Insights in a forecast. The firm projects planted corn acreage in the U.S. at 95.5 million acres, up 174,000 acres from the USDA's previous projection in March. This moves the 2025 corn crop closer to the record of over 97 million acres set in 2012. S&P Global also projects soybean and spring wheat planted acreage to be higher than projected in March. Soybean acreage is seen as rising 205,000 acres to 83.7 million acres and spring wheat acreage at 10.2 million acres, up 180,000 acres. CBOT grains are mixed in early trade, with most-active corn down 0.5%, soybeans down 0.2%, and wheat up 1.3%. ([e-mail])

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Oil Climbs Over 2% on Middle East Risks -- Market Talk

1411 GMT - Oil prices rose nearly 3% in afternoon trading as missile attacks between Israel and Iran continue and traders assess the latest remarks from President Trump on the conflict. Brent crude is up 2.5% to $75.05 a barrel, while WTI trades 2.4% higher to $71.93 a barrel. After the G7 meeting in Canada, Trump said he hasn't returned to Washington to work on a cease-fire but something "much bigger than that" and that he wants "a real end" to the conflict. Iran's oil export infrastructure hasn't yet been targeted by the attacks. However, increased interference with navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf is raising concerns over shipping. "High call option volumes indicate that hedging for upside risk remains active, suggesting that investors are still positioning for potential price spikes this month as tensions persist," Forex.com's Razan Hilal says. ([e-mail])

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Farm Supplier Vouches for Pesticides' Safety -- Market Talk

0945 ET - Agricultural pesticides are in the crosshairs of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Again" movement. Chuck Magro, CEO of weedkiller and crop seed company Corteva, says chemicals are rigorously studied before farmers can spray them on fields. "Some of these products have had 100 reviews, from a safety perspective," Magro says at the WSJ Global Food Forum. Corteva has some naturally-derived alternatives in the works, but Magro says pulling existing chemicals off the market could disrupt food production. "Farmers need these tools." ([e-mail]; @jacobbunge)

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Aluminum Prices Gain as Supply Concerns Raised -- Market Talk

1329 GMT - Base metal prices are mixed. The LME three-month copper is flat at $9,693.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum is up 1.3% at $2,549.50 a ton. Aluminum looks an increasingly bullish bet over the medium to long term, Citi analysts say in a note. Current prices are too low to incentivize sufficient supplies to meet demand over the next one to five years, they say. In this scenario, the market could run out of aluminum if prices stay flat, analysts say. While it is hard to say how high prices must go to incentivize supply growth needed by 2030, they likely need to be above $3,000 a ton for a sustained period, Citi writes. ([e-mail])

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USDA Crop Progress Report Shows Mixed Results -- Market Talk

0928 ET - The USDA reported mixed conditions for U.S. crops, with the corn crop rising 1 point to 72% good or excellent condition, while soybean condition fell 2 points to 66% good or excellent. Spring wheat saw a 4 point jump in crop quality to 57% good or excellent, while winter wheat condition fell 2 points to 52% good or excellent. Warmer weather is supporting the improvement of the corn crop, says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in a note. "The higher temperatures are the key to the turnaround," says Cordonnier, adding that soybeans in many areas have received too much rain, explaining some soybean health issues. Most-active CBOT corn is down 0.1%, soybeans rise 0.2%, and wheat is up 0.9%. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Fall as Concerns of Wider Middle East War Abate -- Market Talk

1208 GMT - Gold futures slip as fears of a wider fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict ease. Futures are down 0.3% at $3,406.50 a troy ounce. The precious metal is showing little movement Tuesday after a drop of 1.6% in the prior session on falling safe-haven demand, XS.com's Samer Hasn says in a note. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region won't face major disruption, Hasn writes. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gold gains. That said, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict, Iran could escalate by shutting the Strait of Hormuz. That concern could prompt the U.S. and Gulf states to step up geopolitical efforts in the region, Hasn adds. ([e-mail])

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'Long Gold' Remains Most Crowded Trade, BofA Survey Says -- Market Talk

1050 GMT - 'Long gold' is the most crowded trade for the third month running, according to 41% of investors, Bank of America's global fund manager survey in June says. This confirms that the 24-month streak for 'long Magnificent 7' stocks, now at 23%, as the most crowded trade has come to an end, the survey says. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Falls, Tracking Soybean, Crude Oil Prices -- Market Talk

1012 GMT - Palm oil ended lower, reversing gains earlier in the Asian trading session. The market tracked lower soybean oil and crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Concerns over rising output also weighed on market sentiment, Ng adds. Ng sees support at 4,000 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,150 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery was down 28 ringgit at 4,066 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Metal Prices Inch Lower as U.S. Dollar Strengthens -- Market Talk

0911 GMT - Base metal prices slide, with LME three-month copper down 0.2% at $9,673.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.1% at $2,514.0 a ton. Metal prices are under pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthens, making it more expensive for international buyers to purchase. Copper prices have been broadly rangebound in recent sessions, though tight market conditions are likely to ease in the near-term, Britannia Global Markets' Neil Welsh says in a note. Spot aluminum transactions have weakened, with premiums like the U.S. Midwest Premium over LME prices pulling back and market discounts improving, Welsh writes. This follows downstream plants announcing production cuts and sluggish transactions as prospective buyers balk at high prices, Welsh writes. ([e-mail])

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China's Capacity Ceiling, Stimulus Likely to Support Aluminum Prices -- Market Talk

0835 GMT - The U.S.-China trade talks help stabilize aluminum prices, with China's capacity ceiling and stimulus likely to continue to support aluminum prices, HSBC Global Research analysts write in a note. Aluminum output recorded a new high in May, thanks to improved smelter margins and robust demand, they say. China's aluminum inventory dropped around 400,000 tones over the past three months, despite the robust supply, indicating strong downstream demand. As the current production levels have already touched the capacity cap of 45 million tones in China, the sequential growth in supply will be muted, they say. ([e-mail]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Israel-Iran Conflict Unlikely to Lift Gold Price in Long Term -- Market Talk

0829 GMT - The Israel-Iran conflict is unlikely to lift gold price in the long term, Julius Baer's Carsten Menke says in a research note. The gold market's reaction to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran remains very moderate, with prices up less than 1% since before Israel's initial attack, the analyst says. "We assume that this reaction has been driven by some speculators and automated trading systems in the futures market rather than by physical safe-haven demand," the analyst notes. It is in line with the historical pattern of such geopolitical shocks not keeping gold prices high for long, Menke notes. Spot gold is flat at $3385.11/oz. ([e-mail])

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European Gas Price Rises on Supply Disruption Fears -- Market Talk

0821 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise in early trading as investors closely watch the latest developments in the Middle East, fearing it could escalate into a wider war and disrupt supplies. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 2.3% to 38.77 euros a megawatt hour. "Similar to oil, the biggest concern is that a further escalation would disrupt the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts say. "Qatar, which makes up around 20% of global LNG trade, uses this route to export LNG. There is no alternative route." For now, physical deliveries of LNG cargoes appear largely unaffected, with the only disruption stemming from navigational signal interference in and around the Persian Gulf, according to market watchers. Traders are also monitoring the situation in Israel after at least two gas fields supplying gas to Egypt have been closed.([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Extend Losses But Safe-Haven Appeal Looks Secure -- Market Talk

0758 GMT - Gold futures extend losses from the prior session as traders continue to take profits. Futures are down 0.2% at $3,409.70 a troy ounce, though they remain up 1.6% in the week to date. Gold futures fell 1.6% on Monday after Iran signaled it wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel, Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. However, this isn't a classic de-escalation story, she says. Gold briefly rose earlier in the session on safe-haven buying as the conflict appeared to intensify. News of fresh attacks have rolled in and President Trump left the G-7 summit early to deal with the crisis, warning that Tehran should be evacuated. Markets seem far too relaxed and any further escalation could trigger renewed safe-haven appetite, Ozkardeskaya writes. ([e-mail])

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Gold Bulls 'Taking a Breather,' Chart Shows -- Market Talk

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06-17-25 1222ET