By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for January delivery fell 0.8%, to $9.84 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with chief competitor Brazil receiving the optimal weather for large crop growth.

--Corn for March delivery fell 0.6%, to $4.29 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.1%, to $5.47 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Looking Good: The main pressure point for CBOT grain futures remains abundant good weather in South American growing areas, with countries like Brazil getting ample rain but not too much as to create issues for the nascent crop. "South America's weather recovery is real, and while some dryness may show up over the next two weeks, the picture has changed and this will have material effects," said independent trader Sterling Smith. He adds that grain buyers are in the driver's seat, and have no need to hustle for good deals on the market. "Buyers have become very complacent and will buy just what they need to buy," he said.

Political Climate: New developments out of the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the fighting in the Middle East continue to be big movers for grains--as other issues affecting them remain subdued. "Limited influential grain news around, but there is plenty of geo-political rhetoric around that needs to be monitored," said Brian Pullam of Linn & Associates. How these wars affect grain supply chains is the primary concern for traders. Traders are also concerned about how U.S. foreign policy may play out in President-elect Trump's second term, chiefly his tariff proposals.


INSIGHT


Overseas Unrest: The fallout from political unrest in South Korea holds importance for U.S. grain markets as South Korea is one of the largest customers for U.S. agriculture exports. But trader worries may have been quelled Wednesday morning by a USDA announcement of a new flash sale to Seoul of 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil. However, soybean futures did not reflect this, with the soybean futures contract finishing lower.

Tumbling Down: Average American production of ethanol fell for the week ended Nov. 29, by more than expected by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The EIA pegged average daily production was 1.073 million barrels a day, down 46,000 b/d from last week's record-high average of 1.119 million b/d. It also was below the low-end of analyst estimates for the week, which were between 1.099 million and 1.125 million b/d. Stockpiles grew for the week, coming in above 23 million barrels for the first time since late September. Lower ethanol prices on the Midwest spot market may be a signal for U.S. production to curtail, Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group said in a note.

Expecting a Slide: Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast soybean export sales to fall in this week's report from the USDA. Sales are expected to land between 1.1 million metric tons and 2.4 million tons, down from last week's total of 2.51 million tons. Analysts forecast some potential upside for corn and wheat. Corn is seen landing between 800,000 tons and 1.55 million tons this week versus 1.13 million tons last week, while wheat is expected 300,000 tons and 600,000 tons versus 366,800 tons the previous week. Concerns about losing export demand to Brazil have been a pressure point for futures.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-04-24 1534ET