By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for July delivery rose 0.7% to $5.35 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, in response to analyst forecasts that the USDA will cut its outlook for wheat stocks domestically and internationally.

--Corn for July delivery rose 0.3% to $4.55 3/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for July delivery fell 0.5% to $10.40 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Slim Pickings: Next week's WASDE report from the USDA may show a cut to the amount of wheat available worldwide, which gave wheat futures a boost throughout the day. "I look for global wheat stocks to contract to its lowest level since 2014," said Terry Reilly of Marex. Reilly projects that ending stocks of new crop wheat -- or wheat growing this year -- is expected to fall over 5 million metric tons from what the USDA estimated last month. U.S. ending stocks are also projected by Reilly to retract, falling by 29 million bushels.

Taking a Cue: CBOT corn spent much of the day mimicking the rebound seen in crude oil futures, although to a lesser extent. Front-month WTI crude oil settled up 3.4% to $59.09 a barrel, turning around after sliding to its lowest level since 2021 last week. Corn derived direction from crude oil because of ethanol's use as a blend for gasoline, which made the OPEC+ announcement of a larger-than-expected increase to oil production a pressure point for both commodities. But analysts still think that the supply-demand picture for U.S. corn is tighter than previously expected, which has supported corn's bounce, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note.

Fast Pace: The planting of corn and soybeans in the U.S. has outpaced the rate they were planted last year, showing that farmers have taken advantage of good weather to get crops into the ground. The USDA says farmers have planted 40% of their corn crops, along with 30% of their soybeans. For corn that's five points higher than this time last year, and its six points higher for soybeans. The corn figure is more in line with the 5-year average, and only one point higher. For soybeans though, this year's pace is seven points ahead of the average. Spring wheat planting is one point behind last year's pace, but remains 10 points ahead of the five-year average.


INSIGHT


Racing to the Finish Line: Brazil's soybean harvest this year looks to stay at a massive 169 million tons, said Michael Cordonnier of Soybean & Corn Advisor Inc. -- which combined with an accelerated pace of planting in the U.S. is applying pressure on CBOT soybean futures. Cordonnier also adds that while harvesting in Argentina has met some delays, yields there are better than expected. "All this points to the possibility that the Argentine soybean estimate may increase in the future," he said. Cordonnier estimates total soybean production in South America at 235.8 million tons, which he says is 15.1 million tons higher than what the USDA reported for 2023/24.

Cautious Optimism: U.S. farmers are holding a more optimistic view of agricultural economics, said a survey published by Purdue University and CME Group shows. The main reading, called the Ag Economy Barometer, rose 8 points to 148, bouncing following losses last month after President Trump's 'Liberation Day.' Since then, the Trump Administration has taken a more diplomatic approach, with tariffs mostly centered on China while major trading partners like Canada and Mexico were largely spared. "This month's results suggest some producers are starting to look beyond near-term uncertainty and focus more on positioning their farms for the future," said Michael Langemeier of Purdue University.


AHEAD


--Bunge will release its first-quarter earnings report at 6 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--Corteva Inc. will release its first-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-06-25 1539ET