The ruble is suffering
The renewed tension in Ukraine has sent the ruble on a downward slope against the euro and the dollar. The Russian currency is trading at a year low of RUB77.84 against the USD and RUB92.43 against the EUR. "The ruble could remain under pressure due to rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the risks of further sanctions against Moscow," Unicredit points out, although it believes a return above USD77 is a buying opportunity, given the inflation-induced rate path. The Russian central bank, which is targeting 4% inflation in the medium term, had already raised its key rate in March, against all expectations and for the first time in more than three years. March inflation reached 5.8% year-on-year in Russia
RUB vs USD (yellow) and vs EUR (red) in 2021.
The dollar has corrected
The dollar index has continued its decline in recent days. The EUR regained ground against the USD, until it returned to USD 1.1881. "The US dollar's weakness so far this week has been more against the low-yielding currencies of the Swedish krona, Swiss franc, euro and yen. It has held up better against the pound and the Canadian dollar," says Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ
The euro is recovering (a little) but is still a long way from its February peaks