Wall Street is open for half a session and new all-time highs have already been broken, but only futures are working on T-Bonds (-5pts to 4.207%, i.e. -20.5pts weekly), the day after Thanksgiving: expectations of higher consumer spending are not fuelling inflationary fears for the time being.
US companies are rushing to place orders in China ahead of higher tariffs: December could see a sharp rise in import prices.

European interest rates are easing with the prospect of further rate cuts, as the political, economic and geopolitical uncertainties currently weighing on the Old Continent continue to cast a gloom over our economies.
The region is clearly penalized by weak domestic demand, and the fear of new customs duties in the United States is undermining the confidence of business leaders, who still can't count on the Chinese recovery," points out Thomas Giudici, manager at Salamandre (Auris Gestion).
The ECB therefore has no choice but to step up the pace of rate cuts, despite persistently strong wage growth", says Giudici.
Over the week as a whole, Eurozone Treasuries shed an average of -18pts.
Bunds shed -5.5pts this Friday (to 2.0850%), OATs -4.7 (2.895%), Italian BTPs -7.5pts to 3.2720% (the Italian '10-yr' eases by -23pts over the week on average... and the spread with our OATs melts to +39pts vs. 50 10 days ago.
The good news for France is that the OAT/Bund spread has narrowed from 88 to 82 basis points in 48 hours, demonstrating a certain composure (no anticipated downgrades) ahead of Standard & Poor's verdict on our debt this evening.
Still no tailwind for UK Gilts, which once again went against the tide with a downgrade of +2pts to 4.291%, i.e. just 9pts of improvement... i.e. half as much as on the Continent.

As for the figures, investors were reassured a little at the end of the morning with the data on inflation in the eurozone: they came out in line with forecasts.
The "gross" rate came out at 2.3% in November, compared with +2.00% in October, but the pleasant surprise came from the "core" rate, which stabilized at 2.7%, compared with 2.8% anticipated.
The ECB's median inflation forecast for the next 12 months rose to 2.5%, compared with 2.4% previously, while the three-year forecast remained stable at 2.1%.

For the record, preliminary figures published yesterday in Germany and Spain highlighted a re-acceleration in price dynamics, mainly in the services sector, but economists judge that these statistics are not such as to rule out the scenario of a possible 50 basis point rate cut by the ECB next month.

In France, according to the provisional one-year estimate made at the end of the month, consumer prices would rise by 1.3% in November 2024, according to Insee, after +1.2% in October.


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