OPENING CALL

A blockbuster week for stocks could end on a subdued note.

Stock futures were muted early Friday, while Treasury yields slipped.

Airbnb, DraftKings and Pinterest came under pressure premarket, following disappointing results.

In Asia, China's top legislative body gave its green light for local governments to swap some of their mounting off-balance-sheet debts but stopped short of new fiscal stimulus measures to revive the struggling economy.

Premarket Movers

Airbnb reported higher revenue in the third quarter and cited improved travel demand in North America. The stock initially jumped on the results, but reversed course to trade down 5%.

Pinterest fell 11% after it beat Wall Street expectations for the third quarter but warned of an increase in operating expenses.

Rivian said a part shortage weighed on production in the latest quarter, but confirmed it is still on track to report its first-ever gross profit by the year's end. Shares rose 2%.

Trump Media & Technology remained under pressure, recently down 4%. Shares fell 23% on Thursday.

U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies Alibaba, PDD Holdings, JD.com and NIO fell after Beijing extended an $837 billion lifeline to local governments, but held off on big fiscal stimulus measures.

Postmarket Movers

Lantronix reported fiscal first-quarter revenue that came in below the $36.3 million that analysts were looking for, according to FactSet. Shares fell 10%.

Watch For:

University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Survey for November; Canada Labor Force Survey; World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

Today's Headlines/Must Reads:

- Wall Street Luminaries Jockey for Influence on Next Trump Administration

-Prediction Markets Are Basking in Their Election Win. Can It Last?

-Trump Enters Just as the Fed Is Shifting Its Focus

-Amazon Is Looking to Revamp Its Grocery Delivery

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

China's plans to tackle local government debt failed to impress and this weighed on Chinese assets and appeared to give the dollar a brief lift, Rabobank said.

However, the dollar will likely take its cue from Treasury yields, which have indicated that the so-called Trump trade is being faded, it added.

A large portion of the dollar's appreciation after Donald Trump's election win has been unwound, ING said.

"That, to us, looks more like a positioning adjustment rather than a rethink of what a Trump presidency means for global markets."

ING said it's unclear how far the currency can rally near-term given the focus is shifting back to macroeconomics.

U.S. real yields could play a key role in determining the dollar's performance, potentially limiting its rise, MUFG Bank said.

The 10-year real yield is little changed since Trump's election victory, MUFG added. His plans to extend his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017 won't boost growth "very much" as it merely confirms the status quo.

"A growth-boosting plan would have a greater impact in lifting real yields."

Fed Funds Rate

More fiscal spending under the incoming U.S. government is expected to mean a higher terminal fed funds rate than previously seen, SEB Research said. It now expects the rate at 3.25%-3.50%, but with upside risks. This is 50 basis points higher than it saw before.

"The Fed is now likely to cut policy rates less than previously projected."

Sterling looks vulnerable as the U.K. government's budget is unlikely to derail interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England next year, ING said.

The BOE is unlikely to lower rates in December but is still likely to deliver faster cuts in spring compared with market expectations, ING said.

That could lead to a repricing in market rate-cut expectations, although this could take some time to materialize, it said.

In the meantime, the U.K.'s more favorable rate and economic growth differential to the eurozone should prevent EUR/GBP from rising materially, ING added.

Bonds:

Societe Generale said bond markets are likely to stabilize, awaiting clarity on U.S. policies after the elections, expecting the 10-year Treasury yield to remain in the 4%-4.5% range, while the two-year yield will remain pegged.

SEB Research said irrespective of the U.S. election result, it had been expecting higher Treasury yields through 2025.

The election outcome, however, means even more upside in U.S. yields for the coming 1-2 years. This is due to more cautious interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than previously projected to incorporate higher inflation and the impact of a larger budget deficit.

Neuberger Berman estimates the fair value of 10-year Treasurys at a yield of around 4.25%, although within a wide range. This view could change if U.S. fiscal policies diverge substantially from current expectations.

Recent volatility has been mostly restricted to shorter-dated Treasurys but it could extend to longer-dated bonds too. Concerns surrounding the deficit, tax policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet could prompt investors to demand a higher premium for buying longer-dated debt.

Bund yields have probably reached a ceiling and look attractive, Citi said. At the same time, its conviction in an eventual rally below 2% for the 10-year yield is "somewhat reduced."

The outlook for Bunds is more uncertain and more complex of late. Trump's election win creates bearish spillovers from Treasurys, pulling Bund yields upwards. On the flipside, global central banks are in easing mode.

"For sure, it is extremely hard for Bunds to rally towards 2% if Treasury [yields] stay around current levels."

Energy:

Oil prices were more than 1% lower as Hurricane Rafael is forecast to start weakening, easing risks to U.S. output.

Rafael is expected to start moving at a slower speed and weaken through the weekend, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Still, crude prices are headed for weekly gains as markets weigh the potential effects of a Trump presidency on market fundamentals.

"It is difficult to say with any certainty what the net impact on prices will be," BMI said.

"Key areas to watch include a potential tightening of sanctions, notably on Iran, meaningful shifts in the foreign policy approach and rising trade tensions, in particular with Mainland China."

BMI said OPEC+ would have to further delay its planned output hike to curb the anticipated global supply surplus next year.

"Our data currently show a surplus of around 720,000 barrels a day for 2025 and this assumes that OPEC+ does not begin ramping up its output until April of that year."

LNG Projects

Project development of LNG in the U.S . could be hit by the effects of higher trade tariffs under Trump's administration, according to Kpler.

The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for many of the components needed to build LNG trains, Kpler said.

"Increasing the costs of the necessary raw materials, machined parts, and equipment will in turn increase already rising costs associated with constructing a liquefaction plant in the U.S."

Metals:

Gold was on course to end the week lower reflecting reduced uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, BMI said.

Trump's resounding victory sent the dollar higher, pressuring gold. At the same time, Trump's proposed policies--including tariffs and stricter immigration controls--are inflationary in nature. This has softened expectations for sizeable Fed rate cuts, BMI said.

Gold's rally may have run its course, UOB said, after the metal formed a 'Doji' pattern on the weekly candlestick chart, which is typically perceived as a bearish signal.

Uranium

Citi is cautious about uranium prices in the near term as it analyses the outcome of Trump's election victory.

It's concerned about the potential for Russian uranium supplies to enter Western markets if there's a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Also, production is up world-wide and new mines are being developed, Citi said. That's likely to bring more new supply to the market in 2025.

"We also revise our 4Q [of 2024] and 1Q 2025 averages to $84/lb and $90/lb, respectively. We still expect prices to return to a $100/lb level towards the end of 2025."


TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES


Goldman Pitches a Personal CFO to the Ultrawealthy

For years, Goldman Sachs's private-wealth team has focused on providing investment advice to the ultrarich. Now, it wants to organize their financial paperwork, manage their house staff and find them home insurance.

Goldman recently rolled out a family office within its private-wealth management division, part of a broad effort to expand services it provides to the most affluent. Those clients are increasingly important for the firm's strategy to diversify its revenue beyond dealmaking and trading.


Icahn's Firm Seeks Bigger Stake in Top Holding While Slashing Its Own Dividend

Carl Icahn says he is sensing opportunity in the stock market and wants to increase his stake in a top portfolio company. But to fund his war chest, he is going to cut his investment firm's dividend in half.

Icahn Enterprises plans to propose boosting its stake by more than 20% in CVR Energy, a small refiner in which the activist investor is the controlling shareholder, according to drafts of statements that Icahn and his firm plan to release Friday that were viewed by The Wall Street Journal.


Sony Raises Sales Outlook as Profit Jumps on Game Strength

Sony Group raised its annual revenue forecast after delivering a second-quarter profit beat, buoyed by earnings from its game business.

The solid results are a positive sign for the Tokyo-based company, which has spent billions of dollars in acquisitions over the past few years to boost entertainment content creation. Its entertainment businesses, such as games, music and movies, made up nearly 60% of overall revenue in its latest fiscal year, up from about 30% a decade earlier.


Has Luxury Lost Its Shine?

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11-08-24 0615ET