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MarketScreener Homepage  >  Equities  >  Nyse  >  A. O. Smith Corporation    AOS

A. O. SMITH CORPORATION

(AOS)
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A O Smith : Summer 2020 Analyst Presentation

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08/04/2020 | 03:17pm EDT

Summer 2020 Analyst Presentation

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains statements that we believe are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe," "continue," " forecast," "guidance" or words of similar meaning. All forward- looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated as of the date of this presentation. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these expectations include, among other things, the following: negative impacts to our business, including demand for our products, operations and workforce dislocation and disruption, supply chain disruption and liquidity as a result of the severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic; a failure to recover or further weakening of the Chinese economy and/or a failure to recover or further decline in the growth rate of consumer spending or housing sales in China; negative impact to our businesses from international tariffs and trade disputes; a failure to recover or further weakening in the high efficiency boiler market segment in the U.S.; significant volatility in raw material availability and prices; our inability to implement or maintain pricing actions; potential weakening in U.S. residential or commercial construction or instability in our replacement markets; foreign currency fluctuations; inability to successfully integrate or achieve our strategic objectives resulting from acquisitions; competitive pressures on our businesses; the impact of potential information technology or data security breaches; changes in government regulations or regulatory requirements; and adverse developments in general economic, political and business conditions in the key regions of the world. Forward-looking statements included in this presentation are made only as of the date of this presentation, and the company is under no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributed to the company, or persons acting on its behalf, are qualified entirely by these cautionary statements. This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures as that term is defined by the SEC. Non-GAAP financial measures are generally identified by "Adjusted" (Adj.) or "Non-GAAP."

2

Who We Are

GLOBAL

MANUFACTURER

of residential and commercial water heaters, boilers and water treatment products

$3.0B Annual Sales

15,100 Employees

23 Manufacturing Facilities

3

Compelling Investment Thesis

Market leader

Stable/growing U.S.

Strength of premium

replacement market;

brand, distribution,

operating leverage

manufacturing and

from incremental new

innovation provide

construction and

clear market

replacement

advantage in China

5 year adjusted EPS CAGR through 2019 = 12.7%

5 year dividend CAGR through 2019 = 24.5%

5 year cumulative cash returned to shareholders from dividends and shares repurchased = $1.4 billion

Strong balance sheet and cash flow to support future growth, share repurchase and acquisitions

4

We Have Organic Revenue Growth Drivers Across our Portfolio

Product Lines / Geographies

North America

North America

Boilers

Water

China

India/

Water Heaters

Treatment

International

Innovative

Innovative

Best innovative

Product

Market

energy efficient

energy efficient

products in

Innovation

expansion and

products

products

marketplace

Channel

penetration

Service

Best in class

Direct-to-

expansion in Tier

E-commerce

leadership

education and

consumer &

3 and 4 cities

Brand-building

training

E-commerce

Best in class

Brand leveraging

marketing

leadership

virtual training

Service

efforts

E-commerce

leadership

Leverage retail

Innovative,

and wholesale

New product

Customer-centric

green products

opportunities

categories

product

development

Expand dealer

focus

presence

Drive

commercial

specifications

Vision

To be a leading

provider of innovative and energy-efficient products used to heat, treat and conserve water, providing value to our residential and commercial customers

5

Corporate Snapshot

Segment Revenue

Products

• Water Heaters

• Water Treatment

• Boilers

Full Year

Brands

2019

North America

69%

Rest of World

31%

North America

ROW

6

Leading Market Share in the U.S. Water Heater Market Segment1

Residential Market

2019 market share data (AHRI + tankless)

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

ith

Rh

B

df

d Whit

Oth

A O S

Other

Commercial Market2

2019 market share data (AHRI)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Rheem

Bradford White

Other

A O Smith

Other

1 AOS actual shipments and AOS estimates of competitors' shipments

7

2 Commercial water heater segment as defined by AHRI, total 2019 commercial units as reported by AHRI = 239,000 units

Comprehensive Residential and Commercial

Water Heaters Product Offering

Residential

ProLine® 50-Gallon

Gas Tankless Water

Electric Water

Hybrid Electric Heat

Heater with X3™

Heater

Technology

Pump Water Heater

ProLine® Master

50-Gallon Gas

Water Heater

Commercial

Cyclone® Mxi

Commercial Heat

Pump Water Heater

8

Industry Leading Partners in both the U.S.

Residential Water Heater Channels

INDUSTRY

Wholesale Channel

Retail Channel

Large Regional

Distributors

WHOLESALE CHANNEL

A. O. Smith Customers

54% of the market

RETAIL CHANNEL

~46% of the market

9

Stable Replacement Volumes to Temper Downcycles with Upside New Construction Optionality

U. S. Residential Water Heaters1

Thousands of units

PEAK HOUSING

10,000 2.1M

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

New Construction

Replacement

1 Includes tankless

10

Industry-Leading Energy Efficient

Cyclone Condensing Commercial Water Heater

Up to 96% thermal

Connectivity

Represents

efficiency

built in

67% of AOS

dramatically lowers

commercial gas

operating costs

water heater

offering short

revenues

payback

11

U.S. Commercial Gas Market: Energy Efficient Units more than Doubled in Nine Years to 47% of Units Sold in 2019

Commercial Gas Industry Units

100,000

80,000

60,000

<90% Efficiency

40,000

2019

>90% Efficiency

20,000

2009

41,472 units

(47% of total)

19,000 units (29% of total)

-

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: AHRI Industry Data

12

Industry trending to Higher Efficiency Condensing Boilers Drives Past and Future Growth

NA Boiler Volumes

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Condensing Commercial Boilers Non-Condensing Commercial Boilers

Source: 2006 to 2017: BRG Solutions; 2018-2019: AOS estimates

A. O. Smith Boiler Sales

10%

90%

Condensing

Non-Condensing

13

Comprehensive Boiler Product Offering

Commercial & Residential

Residential Condensing Boilers

Residential Combi-boilers

(55mbh - 399mbh)

(Indoor Rated)

(110mbh - 199mbh)

(Indoor Rated)

Commercial Condensing Boilers

Commercial Non-Condensing Boilers

Commercial Cogeneration

(500mbh - 5000mbh)

(Indoor & Outdoor Rated)

XRGI 25

Micro

Combined Heat & Power

• 163,000 BTU/hr

• 24 kW of electricity

• 49 DB(A)

(400mbh - 850mbh)

(750mbh - 6000mbh)

(Indoor Rated)

(Indoor & Outdoor Models available)

14

Our Focused Technology is Reverse Osmosis, a Leading Technology to Provide Safe Drinking Water

Taste & Odor

Pore Size 5000 nm

Sediment

& Colloids

Pore Size 1000 nm

Bacterium

& Organics

Pore Size 50 nm

Heavy Metals &

Salts

Pore Size 0.2 nm

H2O

Activated Carbon

improves taste (removes chlorine), removes organic pollutants including PFAS

Micro-Filtration

removes sediment, particulates, and colloids

Ultra-Filtration

removes bacterium, large organics and other pollutants resulting from water transport

Reverse Osmosis

the ultimate filtration technology; removes nearly all substances, particularly most heavy metals prevalent in China and India water supplies

Safe Water

15

Evolution of AOS' Global Water Treatment Business

Revenue

$ in millions

Inorganic Revenue

35% CAGR over the last 10 years

Organic Revenue

$458

$397

$322

$250

$134

$69

$97

$20

$20

$35

$38

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Acquired

Launched

Purchased MIM,

Launched

Purchased

Purchased

Launched AOS

Purchased

Chanitex

AOS branded

WT company in

AOS branded

Aquasana &

Hague

branded WT at

Water-Right

WT in China

Turkey

WT in India

launched

Lowe's

AOS branded

WT in Vietnam

16

Large Addressable Market in U.S.

Water Treatment

Addressable A. O. Smith Market: $2.3 B

Water Treatment (Softeners)

32%

Water Filtration

68%

This Photoby Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Sources: A. O. Smith Primary Quantitative, Market Segmentation Research, April 2017

17

Positioned to Grow Across all Water Treatment Channels

Channel Brand

Industry Water Treatment Channels

Our brands participate in all channels; most competitors operate in 1-2 of these channels

DIRECT TO

Aquasana

9%

5%

website or direct

CONSUMER

mail or telesales

E-COMMERCE

other e-commerce

14%

market places

CONSUMER

48%

WATER

Dealer

QUALITY

DEALERS

24%

RETAIL

Water Quality Dealers

Retail

WHOLESALE

Wholesaler or

Wholesale

DTC

Contractor / Plumber

E-com

$2.3 Billion Addressable Market

Sources: A. O. Smith Primary Quantitative, Market Segmentation Research, April 2017; Water Quality Association 2017 Consumer Opinion Study

18

Comprehensive Water Treatment Product Offering for the Entire Home

Point of Entry Products

Point of Use Products

Non-Installed Products

Whole Home

Clean Water

Filtration

Machine

Whole Kitchen

Tankless RO

Filtration

Systems

Whole Home

On-the-Go Filter

Softeners

Bottles

Traditional RO

Under Sink

Systems

Filtration

19

AOS China Built On

Premium Brand

Extensive Distribution and Service Network

Innovative New Products and World

Class Manufacturing

Local Management Team and Organizational

Development

20

Growing Product Portfolio Developed in China for China

Electric & Gas Water Heaters

Water Treatment

Other Categories

Electric

Water

Air Purifier

Heaters

Water

Purifiers

Range Hood

Gas Water

Heater

21

China: Broad Distribution Channel

Percentage of Sales

23%

21%

20%

17%

17%

33%

36%

35%

35%

36%

29%

30%

33%

32%

30%

10%

+9,000

22%

26%

25%

25%

23%

22%

retail counters in China

26%

24%

30%

54%

45%

31%

31

%

38%

37%

31%

23%

23%

28%

18%

of outlets in Tier 1 cities

1%

3%

8%

2007

2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

69%

E-Commerce

Suning/Guomei

AOS Specialty Stores

Regional Stores

of outlets in Tier 2/3 cities

22

China: Mega Trends Driving Growth

TRENDS

On-line shopping is growing in China

Middle and affluent classes are growing

Urbanization in China projected to drive 28%1 of all global growth!

A. O. SMITH

We are positioned to reach consumers using the internet

Our Market Leading Premium Consumer brand is positioned for the middle and affluent classes

A. O. Smith has manufacturing capacity and channel footprint to capitalize on continued household formation

1 Source: IMF 2019 to 2024, October 2019

23

China: Market Leader in Water Heating and Water Treatment

Water Heater Market Share

A.O.Smith

Haier

Midea

Macro

Wanhe

Rinnai

Noritz

Ariston

Sakura

Siemens

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Water Treatment Market Share

A. O. Smith

Midea

Qinyuan

Angel 3MHaier

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Leading residential brands measured in currency; Tier One Market: 2009 - 2018 CMM; 2019 FEB - CMM data sampling several thousand largest retail stores, December 2018

Data Source: 2012 - 2018 CMM; 2019 FEB retail

24

Thesis in India Similar to China

Attractive Growth Demographics

Leveraging Global Capabilities with Products Designed for the Indian Market

Building Brand & Expanding Our Distribution

Introducing New Product Categories with Water Treatment

Local Management

We are committed for the long-term opportunity

25

India:

2008 through 2019

A Class Cities

(pop >1.5 Mn) Distribution in

25 out of 25 cities

B Class Cities (pop .5 to 1.5 Mn) Distribution in

63 out of 68 cities

C Class Cities (pop .1 to.5 Mn) Distribution in

316 out of 400 cities

Ludhiana

New Delhi

Jaipur

Agra

Kanpur

Lucknow

Bhopal

Patna

Ahmedabad

Indore

Surat

Kolkata

Mumbai

Pune

Hyderabad

Visakhapatnam

Bengaluru

Chennai

Coimbatore

Manufacturing

Location

Guwahati

National Retailers

Regional Retailers

26

Driving Financial Performance and Delivering Significant Growth

Sales Growth

Adjusted EBITDA1

Adjusted Earnings Per Share2

Sales in billions

$3.5

8% CAGR

$700

15% CAGR

21% CAGR

$3.0

Adjusted EBITDA

$2.5

$600

2010

10.6% of Sales

2019

18.7% of Sales

$2.5

$500

$2.0

$2.0

$400

$1.5

$1.5

$300

$1.0

$1.0

$200

$0.5

$100

$0.5

$0.0

$0

$0.0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

1 2010 through 2014 adjusted for non-operating pension costs and certain non-recurring items

2 2010 through 2014 adjusted for non-operating pension costs and certain non-recurring items; 2017 adjusted for U.S. Tax Reform expense; 2018 adjusted for restructuring & impairment expenses

27

Cash Returned to Shareholders:

~$1.4B last Five Years

$ in millions

$500

$450

$436.9

$400

$350

$332.7

$300

$250

$219.4

$236

$200

$195.9

$150

$100

$50

$0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Dividends

Share Repurchase

1 Subject to price, alternative investments and working capital requirements

2828

M&A Criteria and Focus

Accretive to

ROIC in excess of

Meet risk adjusted

Margin accretion

earnings in the

cost of capital by

IRR hurdle rates

with growth rates

first year

third year

higher than U.S.

GDP

Geographic Growth

Expand / Grow the Core

Adjacencies

High Growth Markets

New Products &

Water-themed

New Technologies

platforms for growth

Water Heating

Leverage channels

Water Treatment

and brands

29

Compelling Investment Thesis

Market leader

Stable/growing U.S.

Strength

of premium

replacement market;

brand,

distribution,

operating leverage

manufacturing and

from incremental new

innovation provide

construction and

clear market

replacement

advantage in China

5 year adjusted EPS CAGR through 2019 = 12.7%

5 year dividend CAGR through 2019 = 24.5%

5 year cumulative cash returned to shareholders from dividends and shares repurchased = $1.4 billion

Strong balance sheet and cash flow to support future growth, share repurchase and acquisitions

30

ESG Accomplishments

Products Conserve

Resources

98% Thermal Efficient

Cyclone Commercial Water Heater

1.6B cubic feet of natural gas saved1

100K tons of GHG avoided1

99% Thermal Efficient

Crest Commercial Boiler

2.0B cubic feet of natural gas saved1

120K tons of GHG avoided1

75% Water Conservation Ratio

RO Max Series Water Treatment System

1.3 B gallons of water conserved in China1

Operations Are Safe & Conserve Resources

President's Safety

Award

Established 1955

(predates OSHA)

Chairman's Green

Star Award

2009

ISO 14001 for environment

ISO 45001 for safety

We Are a Good Place to Work

Employee Engagement Score (Max 5)

5.0

87%

90%

100%

4.5

82%

83%

80%

4.0

4.00

4.00

80%

3.5

3.85

3.84

3.99

3.0

60%

2.5

2.0

40%

1.5

1.0

20%

0.5

0.0

0%

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Participation Percentage (right axis)

Ethics

Supervisor

Integrity

Effectiveness

Value Recognition

Innovation

Customer Focus

Celebrating 146 years of innovation

CRS Report

1As reported in AOS 2018 CRS Report based on 2017 sales and data

31

Q2 20 Results

32

Second Quarter Commentary

NA Water

US

NA

China

Minimal

Restructuring

Treatment

residential

commercial

consumer

operational

to align

grows 19

water heater

water heater

demand flat

disruptions

business with

percent

demand

and boiler

to slightly

current

organically

resilient

demand

positive YOY

market

down 20 -

conditions

25 percent

33

Second Quarter Results

$ in millions except per share data

2020

2019

Change

% Change

Sales

$

663.9

$

765.4

$

(101.5)

-13%

Net Earnings

$

67.8

$

102.1

$

(34.3)

-34%

Severance and Restructuring

Expenses

5.0

-

Adjusted Earnings

$

72.8

$

102.1

-29%

EPS

$

0.42

$

0.61

$

(0.19)

-31%

Severance and Restructuring

Expenses

0.03

-

Adjusted EPS

$

0.45

$

0.61

$

(0.16)

-26%

34

Second Quarter Sales

$ in millions

2020

2019

Change

% Change

North America

$ 480.5

$ 524.0

$

(43.5)

-8%

Rest of World

189.7

249.1

(59.4)

-24%

Intersegment

(6.3)

(7.7)

1.4

Total

$ 663.9

$ 765.4

$

(101.5)

-13%

35

Second Quarter Adjusted Earnings (Loss)

$ in millions, except percentages

2020

2019

Change

% Change

Adjusted Segment Earnings

North America

$ 107.6

$ 122.9

$ (15.3)

-12%

Rest of World

(1.9)

22.4

(24.3)

-108%

Inter-segment

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.2)

Total Adjusted Earnings

105.4

145.2

(39.8)

-27%

Corporate

(9.8)

(9.6)

(0.2)

-2%

Interest Expense

(2.5)

(3.4)

0.9

26%

Adjusted Pre-tax Earnings

93.1

132.2

(39.1)

-30%

Adjusted Tax Provision

(20.3)

(30.1)

9.8

Adjusted Earnings

$ 72.8

$ 102.1

$ (29.3)

-29%

Adjusted Segment Margin

North America

22.4 %

23.5 %

Rest of World

(1.0)%

9.0 %

Note: North America adjusted segment earnings and ROW adjusted segment earnings exclude $2.2 million and $3.9 million, respectively, of pre-tax severance and restructuring expenses.

36

Strong Capital Position1

Cash Flow from Operations

$ in millions

$179M

14.5% $569M

$200

$179

$180

Cash provided

Debt to

Cash balance2

$160

$144

by operations

capital ratio

$140

$120

$

~1.3M

$100

$80

288M

Net cash position

Stock repurchase;

$60

shares totaling ~$57M

$40

$20

$0

2020

2019

1 as of June 30, 2020

2 includes cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities

37

2020 Outlook

NA Water Heaters

China

NA Boilers

NA Water Treatment

India/ROW

Total

  • Q2 YOY

Revenue1

sales

Full Year Assumptions

60%

-10%

U.S. residential water heater industry volumes flat; commercial

water heater industry volumes down approximately ten percent

26%

-23%

China local currency sales decline 18 to 20 percent

6%

-15%

NA Boiler revenue declines of approximately 10 percent

6%

+15%

Sales increase 20 to 22 percent

2%

-32%

India similar loss to 2019

100%

-13%

1 Q2 2020

38

Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted EPS

(dollars in millions, except per share data)

The following is a reconciliation of net earnings and diluted EPS to adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP):

Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

June 30,

June 30,

2020

2019

2020

2019

Net Earnings (GAAP)

$ 67.8

$102.1

$119.5

$191.4

Severance and restructuring expenses, before tax

6.1

-

6.1

-

Tax effect of severance and restructuring expenses

(1.1)

-

(1.1)

-

Adjusted Earnings

$ 72.8

$102.1

$124.5

$191.4

Diluted EPS (GAAP)

$ 0.42

$

0.61

$

0.74

$

1.14

Severance and restructuring expenses per diluted share, before tax

0.04

-

0.04

-

Tax effect of severance and restructuring expenses per diluted share

(0.01)

-

(0.01)

-

Adjusted EPS

$ 0.45

$

0.61

$

0.77

$

1.14

39

Adjusted Segment Earnings

(dollars in millions)

The following is a reconciliation reported segment earnings to adjusted segment earnings (non‐GAAP):

Segment Earnings (Losses) (GAAP)

Three Months Ended

Six Months Ended

June 30,

June 30,

2020

2019

2020

2019

North America

$

105.4

$

122.9

$

232.5

$

238.9

Rest of World

(5.8)

22.4

(48.0)

34.7

Inter‐segment earnings elimination

$

(0.3)

$

(0.1)

$

(0.3)

$

(0.1)

Total Segment Earnings (GAAP)

99.3

145.2

184.2

273.5

Adjustments:

$

2.2

$

$

2.2

$

North America severance and restructuring expenses

Rest of World severance and restructuring expenses

$

3.9

$

$

3.9

$

Total Adjustments

6.1

6.1

Adjusted Segment Earnings (Losses)

$

107.6

$

122.9

$

234.7

$

238.9

North America

Rest of World

(1.9)

22.4

(44.1)

34.7

Inter‐segment earnings elimination

$

(0.3)

$

(0.1)

$

(0.3)

$

(0.1)

Adjusted Segment Earnings

105.4

145.2

190.3

273.5

40

2020 Adjusted EPS Guidance and 2019 EPS

The following is a reconciliation of diluted EPS to

2020

Guidance

2019

adjusted EPS (non‐GAAP)( all items are net of tax):

Diluted EPS (GAAP)

$1.69 - 1.83

$ 2.22

Severance and restructuring expenses, per diluted share

0.03

Adjusted EPS

$1.72 - 1.86

$ 2.22

41

Disclaimer

A.O. Smith Corporation published this content on 04 August 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 04 August 2020 19:16:04 UTC

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Financials (USD)
Sales 2020 2 767 M - -
Net income 2020 293 M - -
Net cash 2020 274 M - -
P/E ratio 2020 29,4x
Yield 2020 1,83%
Capitalization 8 523 M 8 523 M -
EV / Sales 2020 2,98x
EV / Sales 2021 2,75x
Nbr of Employees 15 100
Free-Float 74,3%
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Technical analysis trends A. O. SMITH CORPORATION
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TrendsBullishBullishBullish
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 13
Average target price 52,38 $
Last Close Price 52,80 $
Spread / Highest target 17,4%
Spread / Average Target -0,80%
Spread / Lowest Target -33,7%
EPS Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
Kevin J. Wheeler Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
Charles T. Lauber Chief Financial Officer
Robert J. Heideman Chief Technology Officer & Senior Vice President
Melissa Scheppele Chief Information Officer & Senior Vice President
Bruce M. Smith Lead Independent Director
Sector and Competitors
1st jan.Capitalization (M$)
A. O. SMITH CORPORATION10.83%8 523
DAIKIN INDUSTRIES,LTD.24.92%53 541
GREE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES, INC. OF ZHUHAI-18.73%47 217
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC0.34%30 394
TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC-8.78%29 022
NIBE INDUSTRIER AB42.30%13 004