Despite declining order intake and an uncertain market outlook for Volvo's trucks--especially in North America--Pareto Securities is standing by its buy recommendation and price target of SEK 305. This is revealed in a new analysis.

Order intake is weakening, particularly in North America, where Class 8 orders are expected to fall by more than 30 percent in the second quarter. As a result, Pareto anticipates that Volvo will once again lower its forecast for the region to 260,000 vehicles for 2025. The company's results are also weighed down by an unusual tariff disadvantage: Volvo manufactures in the United States and faces higher costs (importing steel, aluminum, and components) compared to Mexican competitors who are not subject to the same tariffs.

The analysts are lowering their full-year 2025 profit forecasts by 7 percent and describe the year as "lost," with margin pressure and tariff disadvantages dragging on results. However, they are more optimistic about the 2026-2027 period, when demand is expected to recover as the tariff situation becomes clearer. An aging vehicle fleet is also cited as a supportive factor.

Unlike other truck manufacturers, such as Traton--whose CEO recently warned of weaker orders in Europe--Pareto remains positive on Volvo's long-term potential.

Volvo shares rose 1.2 percent to SEK 269.20 at last close.