AGF Management : The Biggest Obstacle to Donald Trump’s Re-election

Insights and Market Perspectives

Author: 8

October 28, 2020

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS TREMENDOUS ENERGY: His eagerness to campaign throughout the country - often holding three rallies per day - is remarkable. He appears to have some momentum and the race may be tightening. But he faces a major obstacle.

THAT OBSTACLE IS HIS TERRIBLE NUMBERS among female voters. Trump trails Joe Biden among women by about 20% in all the polls we have seen; by contrast, Trump lost women by about 13% in 2016. (Trump's lead among men is in the mid-single digits - not enough to make up for his deficit among women.)

FEMALE VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY OPPOSE Trump's handling of the pandemic, and they are concerned about health care and jobs. Trump's coarse language - 'I'm working my ass off,' he proclaimed yesterday - hasn't helped him. Women, as Trump frequently has complained, simply don't like him.

AND TRUMP FACES ANOTHER DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEM: Senior citizens, who backed him by roughly 9% in 2016, have broken for Biden by nearly 20 points in all polls. Seniors cite Trump's handling of the pandemic, which has inflicted a disproportionate number of fatalities on them; about two-thirds of all deaths have been among seniors.

A WEEK IS A LIFETIME IN POLITICS, and there's still a chance that Trump could close fast. He'll get a tremendous third quarter GDP report tomorrow morning from the Commerce Department; it could show growth of 30%, a statistical make-up from the terrible second quarter, but Trump will boast that the economy is roaring back.

AND EVENTS COULD MOVE THE NEEDLE A BIT: Looting in Philadelphia will give Trump an issue, as will ongoing reports of Biden's involvement in business deals with China and Ukraine.

THIS MORNING'S AGGREGATE OF ALL POLLS on the RealClearPolitics web site shows Biden ahead by 7.1 points - down a little from earlier this fall - and while he leads in most of the battleground states, those leads are not insurmountable.

SENATE RACES HAVE BEEN SCRAMBLED by a huge infusion of cash, mostly to Democrats; the Republicans could hang on by one seat or they could get blown out. A modest 'light Blue Wave' for the Democrats seems likely, with them narrowly gaining control of the Senate, perhaps in a 50-50 tie.

THE MOST ASTONISHING POLITICAL STORY this fall is the enormous amount of voting ahead of the election - now 50% of all 2016 voting - which initially showed overwhelming support for Democrats. But that trend may fade as Republicans vote in large numbers now, and on election day.

A BIDEN VICTORY IS FAR FROM CERTAIN, as Trump fires up his base in raucous rallies - but has he expanded his support beyond his base? He may gain among men in this final week, but the math doesn't look good for Trump because female voters overwhelmingly oppose him.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF's suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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