Financials Air China Limited

Equities

753 CNE1000001S0

Airlines

Market Closed - Hong Kong Stock Exchange Other stock markets 03:08:15 2023-11-30 am EST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5.260 ^HKD	0.00%		-4.36%	-24.32%

Nov. 16	Air China's Passenger Capacity Surges 248% in October	MT
Nov. 15	Air China Limited Reports Operating Results for the Month and Year to Date Ended October 2023	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period : December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capitalization ¹	103 422	128 759	98 007	111 194	133 440	115 260	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	192 413	164 134	174 453	279 478	257 277	306 513	297 859	277 159
P/E ratio	11,2x	15,0x	-4,90x	-3,66x	-2,18x	53,3x	12,4x	8,24x
Yield	1,92%	0,63%	-	-	-	0,09%	1,20%	1,39%
Capitalization / Revenue	0,76x	0,95x	1,41x	1,49x	2,52x	0,81x	0,68x	0,63x
EV / Revenue	1,41x	1,21x	2,51x	3,75x	4,86x	2,17x	1,76x	1,51x
EV / EBITDA	6,67x	8,52x	-19,2x	68,6x	-6,93x	10,7x	7,94x	6,90x
EV / FCF	10,1x	6,31x	-16,6x	-21,4x	-10,8x	17,2x	16,1x	13,4x
FCF Yield	9,93%	15,8%	-6,02%	-4,67%	-9,22%	5,82%	6,20%	7,48%
Price to Book	0,93x	1,10x	0,96x	1,05x	-	2,05x	1,72x	1,43x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	14 524 815	14 524 815	14 524 815	14 524 815	14 524 815	16 200 793	-	-
Reference price ²	5,99	7,07	5,13	4,43	6,14	4,80	4,80	4,80
Announcement Date	03/27/19	03/31/20	03/30/21	03/30/22	03/30/23	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period : December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net sales ¹	136 774	136 181	69 504	74 532	52 898	141 500	169 644	183 525
EBITDA ¹	28 850	19 258	-9 094	4 072	-37 124	28 736	37 522	40 186
EBIT ¹	14 346	9 178	-18 500	-16 862	-46 085	6 781	12 597	15 908
Operating Margin	10,5%	6,74%	-26,6%	-22,6%	-87,1%	4,79%	7,43%	8,67%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	9 977	9 105	-18 475	-21 826	-45 877	1 169	9 379	13 130
Net income ¹	7 336	6 409	-14 409	-16 635	-38 617	1 125	6 115	8 998
Net margin	5,36%	4,71%	-20,7%	-22,3%	-73,0%	0,80%	3,60%	4,90%
EPS ²	0,54	0,47	-1,05	-1,21	-2,81	0,09	0,39	0,58
Free Cash Flow ¹	19 111	25 998	-10 497	-13 040	-23 727	17 839	18 471	20 745
FCF margin	14,0%	19,1%	-15,1%	-17,5%	-44,9%	12,6%	10,9%	11,3%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	66,2%	135%	-	-	-	62,1%	49,2%	51,6%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	261%	406%	-	-	-	1 585%	302%	231%
Dividend per Share ²	0,11	0,04	-	-	-	0,00	0,06	0,07
Announcement Date	27/03/19	31/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period : December	2019 S1	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	65 313	70 868	29 646	23 083	19 794	17 074	36 868	12 918	11 035	23 953	18 136	10 809	28 945	25 068	34 545	59 613	45 864	39 661	77 128	42 440	36 284	59 797	35 459
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 227	-	8 649	5 178	19 902	-2 138
EBIT ¹	-	-	-	2 615	-8 636	-7 173	-10 820	-10 450	-12 608	-16 973	-16 373	-12 739	-18 471	-3 295	-2 388	-796	5 253	4 491	2 205	3 326	-274	14 584	-7 337
Operating Margin	-	-	-	11,3%	-43,6%	-42,0%	-29,3%	-80,9%	-114%	-70,9%	-90,3%	-118%	-63,8%	-13,1%	-6,91%	-1,33%	11,5%	11,3%	2,86%	7,84%	-0,75%	24,4%	-20,7%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-22 801	-	-	-	-	-	5 555	-	-	-	-
Net income	-	3 269	-	-574	-	-6 321	-9 854	-8 900	-10 537	-19 437	-	-	-19 181	-	-	-	-	-	4 507	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	4,61%	-	-2,49%	-	-37,0%	-26,7%	-68,9%	-95,5%	-81,1%	-	-	-66,3%	-	-	-	-	-	5,84%	-	-	-	-
EPS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-0,72	-	-	-	-	-	-1,40	-	-	-0,22	-	-	-0,01	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	08/28/19	03/31/20	08/28/20	08/27/21	10/29/21	03/30/22	03/30/22	04/28/22	08/30/22	08/30/22	10/28/22	03/30/23	03/30/23	04/26/23	08/30/23	08/30/23	10/26/23	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period : December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net Debt ¹	88 991	35 375	76 446	168 284	123 837	189 889	178 846	161 899
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	3,08x	1,84x	-8,41x	41,3x	-3,34x	6,61x	4,77x	4,03x
Free Cash Flow ¹	19 111	25 998	-10 497	-13 040	-23 727	17 839	18 471	20 745
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8,20%	7,09%	-16,9%	-23,8%	-90,9%	3,79%	20,9%	19,1%
Shareholders' equity ¹	89 428	90 389	85 465	70 013	42 502	29 728	29 322	46 991
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3,07%	2,38%	-4,98%	-5,67%	-13,0%	0,45%	1,86%	2,35%
Assets ¹	239 186	268 929	289 172	293 493	296 692	250 082	328 755	382 878
Book Value Per Share ²	6,41	6,44	5,34	4,23	-	2,35	2,79	3,36
Cash Flow per Share ²	1,39	2,79	0,10	0,52	-	1,42	2,03	1,95
Capex ¹	12 308	12 342	11 905	20 170	6 965	15 575	20 704	15 095
Capex / Sales	9,00%	9,06%	17,1%	27,1%	13,2%	11,0%	12,2%	8,23%
Announcement Date	03/27/19	03/31/20	03/30/21	03/30/22	03/30/23	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Air China Limited

Trading Rating :

Investor Rating :

ESG Refinitiv :

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

4.805CNY

Average target price

6.079CNY

Spread / Average Target

+26.53%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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