Airbus ' good results for 2024 clearly didn't impress the market. The stock ended down 2% yesterday. The aircraft manufacturer was very conservative on its civil aircraft deliveries, with a target of 820 aircraft in 2025, compared with the analyst consensus of 838.

The group seems to have a bright path ahead. For one thing, air transport is doing wonderfully well. In 2025, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is forecasting a record number of passengers on aircraft: 5.2 billion, up 6.7% on 2024.

Secondly, the commercial aircraft market boils down to a duopoly with Boeing. However, the rival has been racking up difficulties since the crashes of two 737 Max aircraft in 2018 and 2019. Since then, the Seattle-based aircraft manufacturer has experienced almost everything: grounded aircraft, quality problems, lack of qualified personnel and even a harsh labor dispute. Despite these difficulties, Boeing is too strategic for the United States and bankruptcy is highly unlikely. But since 2019, the American aircraft manufacturer has lost over $35 billion and Airbus has folded. The European aircraft manufacturer has established itself as the number one in civil aviation. In 2024, it delivered more than twice as many aircraft as Boeing (766 versus 348).

As for China's Comac, often mentioned as a potential competitor, its medium-haul C919 is not yet certified in Europe or the United States, and is therefore only sold to Chinese airlines. Consulting firm Roland Berger estimates that Comac could take just 5% of the market by 2035. Not to worry Airbus, whose order book is overflowing. 8658 aircraft were on order at the end of 2024, equivalent to around eleven years' production at the current rate.

It also faces obstacles

Airbus ' main challenge is therefore to increase production. In 2024, Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft, which is still a long way from the 2019 record of 863 deliveries. How can this be explained? Firstly, the entire industry was brought to a standstill by the Covid pandemic, and as in many sectors, the restart led to numerous supply chain disruptions. The greatest difficulty was the shortage of skilled labor, with many employees having left the sector when production came to a halt. Staff had to be not only replaced, but also trained. All this takes time.

Secondly, Airbus depends on a complex supply chain. Difficulties at a single subcontractor can penalize the entire production process. Currently, the main sticking point is Spirit AeroSystems, which supplies fuselage components for the A350 and A220, and whose quality problems are slowing down deliveries. Airbus will therefore have to intervene to stabilize Spirit Aero, both operationally and financially. According to Alphavalue analysts, this will have an impact on free cash flow of hundreds of millions of euros - "mid-triple-digit million" - for 2026 and 2027. There is also a problem with engines, as Pratt&Whitney and CFM are unable to supply enough for Airbus.

Analysts expect more

In addition to commercial aviation, which accounts for the bulk of our business (72% of sales), space activities are another major cause for concern. And with good reason: the defense and space branch posted a negative adjusted operating result of ?566 million last year. High program development costs and competition from new players, particularly SpaceX, are weighing on this business, which will take time to restructure.

As described above, Airbus remains in a very favorable position for the long term. But 2025 will still be a challenging year, and meeting production targets will be key. MarketScreener analysts know that the aircraft manufacturer is often over-optimistic, and struggles to meet its own delivery forecasts. So it will take more than empty words to reverse the earnings momentum.