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MarketScreener Homepage  >  Equities  >  Nyse  >  Alliance Data Systems Corporation    ADS

ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS CORPORATION

(ADS)
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Alliance Data : Q3 2020 Slide Presentation

10/29/2020 | 08:45am EST

Alliance Data

Third Quarter 2020 Results October 29, 2020

Ralph Andretta - President & CEO Tim King - EVP & CFO

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward‐looking statements give our expectations or forecasts of future events and can generally be identified by the use of words such as "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "intend," "project," "plan," "likely," "may," "should" or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe our business strategy, outlook, objectives, plans, intentions or goals also are forward‐looking statements. Examples of forward‐looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements we make regarding, and the guidance we give with respect to, our anticipated operating or financial results, initiation or completion of strategic initiatives, future dividend declarations, and future economic conditions, including, but not limited to, fluctuation in currency exchange rates, market conditions and COVID‐19 impacts related to relief measures for impacted borrowers and depositors, labor shortages due to quarantine, reduction in demand from clients, supply chain disruption for our reward suppliers and disruptions in the airline or travel industries.

We believe that our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions. Forward‐looking statements, however, are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this presentation, and no assurances can be given that our expectations will prove to have been correct. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, factors set forth in the Risk Factors section in our Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the most recently ended fiscal year, which may be updated in Item 1A of, or elsewhere in, our Quarterly Reports on Form 10‐Q filed for periods subsequent to such Form 10‐K. Our forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date made, and we undertake no obligation, other than as required by applicable law, to update or revise any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, subsequent events, anticipated or unanticipated circumstances or otherwise.

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

Key Highlights

  • Strong financial results across key metrics
  • Continued progress on strategic priorities
  • Investment in initiatives to drive long‐term growth

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

3

2020 Third Quarter Financial Highlights

Strong results across key metrics

$1.1B Revenue

$133MM Net income

$2.79 Diluted EPS $250MM Adj. EBITDA, net

  • Credit sales of $6.2 billion in 3Q20 represented a 28% increase versus 2Q20
  • Average receivables declined 5% versus 2Q20 due to the continued impact from COVID‐19
  • Credit metrics exceeded our expectations with a net loss rate of 5.8% for the quarter
  • AIR MILES® reward miles issued and redeemed improved 18% and 13% respectively versus 2Q20

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

4

Card Services Performance Highlights

Encouraging credit sales trends emerging across channels and verticals

  • Credit sales improved 28% from 2Q20 as retailers continued reopening & consumer spend improved
    • Credit sales from diversified verticals* represented 65% of sales in 3Q20 vs 55% in 2019
    • Beauty, home décor, general retail, and hard goods all returned to positive year‐over‐year sales growth

Credit sales continue to rebound from pandemic lows across channels

92%

15%

‐17%

‐2%

Sequential growth

‐23%

‐20%

driven by store

reopening and multi‐

28%

channel spend

27%

‐78%

Pre‐COVID

Shut down

Reopen

Recovery

Sep

1/1‐3/14

3/15‐4/30

5/1‐6/30

7/1‐8/31

9/1‐9/30

2020 year‐over‐year growth

‐15%

3Q20 vs. 2Q20

Total sales

In‐store brand sales

In‐person store brand sales for both PLCC & Co‐Brand cards

Online brand sales

Non‐brand sales

Online brand sales for both

Both online and in‐person non‐

PLCC & Co‐Brand cards

brand sales for Co‐Brand card

*Diversified verticals represent verticals outside of specialty apparel, department stores, and jewelry

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

5

Card Services Performance Highlights

Focus on driving sustained, profitable growth

Partner Renewals

  • Renewal of key partner relationships including:
    • GameStop, the world's largest video game, consumer electronics and collectibles retailer

Digital and mobile

engagement and servicing

  • Bealls Outlet/Burkes Outlet, a regional off‐price retailer with more than 500 locations

Integrated real‐time prescreen and expanded loyalty program

New Vertical Growth

  • Market leader in fast‐growing specialty retail verticals, including beauty ($530B industry / 7% CAGR)
  • Launched two new partnerships:
    • Sally Beauty, the largest distributor of professional beauty supplies in the U.S
    • Salon Centric (part of L'Oréal), one of the largest distributors of professional salon and beauty supplies in the U.S.
    • Alliance Data now manages the Top 4 programs in the U.S. beauty industry

Customer Expansion

  • Strategically offering the new Comenity bankcard to select customers for expanded customer utility
  • Cash back rewards and category accelerators that drove higher than expected response rates
  • Strong millennial engagement with highest sales/active
  • Early metrics suggest strong credit performance trends
  • Opportunity to grow via new acquisition and retention strategies

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary

6

LoyaltyOne® Performance Highlights

Better business conditions lead to sequential 22% revenue improvement over 2Q20

  • Reward miles issued and redeemed improved vs 2Q20; however, the year‐ over‐year impact of lower discretionary spend continues
  • AIR MILES continues to pivot the rewards portfolio to emphasize more non‐travel options, driving higher merchandise redemptions in 3Q20
  • Revenue improved 37% vs 2Q20 as business conditions strengthened
  • With the potential return of COVID‐ 19‐related lockdowns in Europe, many retailers continue to delay promotional programs until 2021

AIR MILES program performance

1,486

1,344

1,316

1,240

1,053

80%

81%

Reward miles

76%

issued improved

from 2Q20 low

58%

55%

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

Miles issued (in millions)

Miles redeemed / issued ("burn rate")

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

7

Doubling Down on Digital Engagement

Continue to grow and accelerate our next generation of digital experiences

Digital Presentment

Digital Application

presents financing and rewards

Frictionless user experience with

earlier in the buying experience

65% pre‐filled customer data

45%

70%

of sales are made online

of applications are digital

(+33% YOY)

(+8% YOY)

Digital Payments

Contactless and wallet

integration

66%

of chip cards are contactless with wallet usage doubling YOY

Digital Servicing

Convenient and secure

management

78%

of bills are paid digitally

(+6% YOY)

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary

8

Investment Highlights

Product and technology enhancements to support growth and digital acceleration

  • Point of sale technology platform which further enhances our digital product suite
    • Buy now, pay later
    • Installment loans
  • White‐label offerings
  • Tech stack integrates seamlessly
  • Embedded Growth strategy
    • Expand to new customer segments and verticals
    • Enhanced penetration with existing customers

Modern and scalable platform

Full digital payments solution

Flexible platform enables seamless

including real‐time financing and

addition of new capabilities

marketing presentment across

Operational and product efficiencies

the buying journey from product

through leading technology

page to checkout

Enables focus and investment on

Single API integration using a

market differentiators

software development kit for

Technology

fast, simple integration

Data

Scalable, one‐stop digital

Digital

integration tool for brand

partners

Product Expansion

Technology Advancement

Digital Experiences

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

9

Strategic Acquisition

Expands digital capabilities with installment loan and buy now, pay later products

Consideration

$450 million of estimated consideration, of which approximately $100 million is Alliance

Data common stock

Financial

Accelerates ADS growth profile, particularly in rapidly growing ecommerce payments space

Impact

Expected to be accretive to EPS within three years

Talent

Bread's talented team of ~185 employees will join Alliance Data

Bread's development team will focus on current priorities and clients as well as

spearheading a new digital innovation hub, in NYC, driving ADS digital initiatives

Expected

Completion subject to customary closing conditions

Timing

Expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2020

Capital

No incremental leverage required to complete the transaction

Structure

Equity element demonstrates confidence in Alliance Data's long‐term success

No impact on our capital allocation strategy

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

10

2020 Action Items

Deliberate and thoughtful progress balancing the pandemic and future growth

Recover

RebuildRegrow

  • Associate safety & health
  • Recession readiness plan
  • Right‐size expense base
  • Disciplined risk management
  • Review partnership economics
  • Expand digital offerings
    • Enhanced Digital Suite
    • POS payment solutions
  • Technology flexibility & upgrades
    • Core processing platform
  • Enhance data & analytics
  • Prudent Balance Sheet actions
  • Focused investment
    • Align with recovery trend
  • Further digital enhancements
  • Sustained, profitable growth
  • Expense flexibility and discipline
  • Drive shareholder value

These actions along with our on‐going strategic initiatives will focus on

profitable growth and driving shareholder value

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

11

Third Quarter 2020 Results

($ in millions, except per share)

3Q20

3Q19

% Change

LoyaltyOne

$185

$246

(25)%

Card Services

$866

$1,192

(27)%

Corporate/Other

nm

Total Revenue

$1,050

$1,438

(27)%

LoyaltyOne

$18

$(5)

nm

Card Services

$212

$300

(29)%

Corporate/Other

$(55)

$(131)

(58)%

Total Earnings before Tax (EBT)

$176

$164

7%

LoyaltyOne

$40

$58

(31)%

Card Services

$233

$328

(29)%

Corporate/Other

$(24)

$(19)

25%

Adjusted EBITDA, net

$250

$367

(32)%

Income from continuing operations

$133

$122

10%

Income from continuing operations per diluted share

$2.79

$2.41

16%

Pre‐Provision, earnings before tax

$384

$462

(17%)

18%

Revenue (1)

82%

8%

8%

Earnings (1)

Before Tax

92%

15%

Adjusted (1)

EBITDA, net

85%

Card Services

LoyaltyOne

  1. Percentages based on Card Services and LoyaltyOne segments combined as reported excluding Corporate/Other and intersegment eliminations Totals may not sum due to rounding; nm = not meaningful

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

12

Key Business Metrics

Improving sales and rebound in yield drove sequential revenue improvement

  • Credit sales improved on a sequential basis providing optimism that pressure on receivables is subsiding as we move towards the typical fourth quarter seasonal step‐up in receivable balances
  • Revenue growth on a sequential basis was aided by card gross yield improvement as the impact of COVID‐related customer relief on fees was mitigated
  • As a result of the revenue growth, expenses increased sequentially, including a $27 million increase in cost of redemptions in our LoyaltyOne business
  • Year‐over‐year fixed cost savings actions remain on track with realized savings of approx. $50 million in 3Q20

Credit sales improved sequentially

Card Services yield rebounded from 2Q20

($ in billions)

$19.3

$19.4

$18.6

25.5%

$16.2

24.7%

$15.4

23.3%

22.5%

$9.3

20.4%

$7.8

$6.1

$6.2

$4.8

28%

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

2.5%

2.4%

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

Normalized avg card receivables*

Credit sales

Card Services gross yield

Card Services cost of funds

*Normalized card receivables includes held‐for‐sale receivables

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

13

Cardmember Payment Behavior

Payment trends remain favorable with 84% of accounts making a payment in 3Q

  • Consumer payments remain strong with increasing payment rates and payments made in full during the quarter
  • The COVID‐related customer relief program now represents 3% of total card receivables as of quarter‐end
    • 73% of enrollees made a payment in 3Q20, up from 55% in 2Q20

Total account payment behavior trends continue to trend upward

82%

82%

84%

82%

81%

22%

22%

23%

21%

23%

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

Paid in full

Made a payment

Payment behaviors on accounts enrolled in COVID‐related customer relief also continue to improve

2Q20

Paid in full

Paid in full

3Q20

8%

10%

55%

Payment less

Payment less

Made a

than balance

No

Made a

73%

No

than balance

payment

in full

payment

payment

47%

payment

27%

in full

63%

45%

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

14

Credit Quality and Allowance

Credit metrics remain resilient

Net loss rates

Reserve rate

($ in millions)

CECL

Max net loss rate since 2005: 10.0%

$2,151

$2,096

$2,081

7.0%

7.6%

5.6%

6.3%

5.8%

$1,171

$1,065

Reserve rate

13.3%

13.3%

Avg net loss rate since 2005: ~6.0%

12.1%

maintained

Min net loss rate since 2005: 3.8%

at 13.3%

5.9%

6.0%

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

‐ ‐ ‐ includes historic quarterly range from 2005‐3Q20

ALLL balance

Reserve rate (1)

Delinquency rate

CECL adoption impact of $644 million on 1/1/20

5.9%

5.8%

6.0%

4.7%

Allowance of $2.1 billion remains flat vs 2Q20,

4.3%

Delinquency

and nearly double 3Q19

rate trending

favorably

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

(1) Calculated as a percentage of allowance for loan loss to end of period credit card and loan receivables

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

15

Balance Sheet Management

Prudent actions to opportunistically extend, diversify, and de‐risk

Actions taken since 9/30/19:

  • Completed two offerings of senior notes, for $850 million & $500 million maturing in 2024 & 2026, respectively
    • Repaid $1.33 billion of term loan
  • Extended the credit facility by 18 months from June 2021 to December 2022
  • Added covenant flexibility: Amended Company's credit agreement to allow certain covenant flexibility over a specific period beginning in 2021 to
    • increase the maximum total leverage ratio
    • decrease the minimum interest coverage ratio
    • increase the maximum permitted average delinquency ratio

Capital structure management:

9/30/19

9/30/20

$2.86 billion due 06/21 ‐‐‐ 1.75 years

$1.48 billion due 12/22 ‐‐‐

2.25 years

$0.85 billion due 12/24 ‐‐‐

4.25 years

$0.50 billion due 01/26 ‐‐‐

5.33 years

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

16

Capital and Liquidity Update

Sufficient corporate liquidity; Banks remain well‐capitalized

Parent Level

  • Liquidity at 9/30 of $1.2 billion, consisting of cash on hand plus revolver capacity
  • Approximately $430 million in cash and cash equivalents, $750 million in unused revolver
  • Fully paid down revolver in the third quarter 2020
  • The next debt maturity in December 2022 is out more than two years

Bank Level

  • Banks finished the quarter with $2.7 billion in cash and $2.6 billion in equity
  • Total Risk Based Capital Ratio at 20.1% ‐ double the 10% threshold to be considered well‐capitalized; CET1 at 18.8%
  • Funding readily available
    • Heavy demand for FDIC‐insured deposit products - both direct‐to‐consumer and brokered
    • Retail deposits have tripled as a percentage of our funding since 2Q19
    • Renewed all three conduits with $3.2 billion of conduit capacity through either April or October 2022

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

17

Strategic Initiatives

Focused investment to drive sustainable long‐term shareholder value

Technology

Product

Digital

Data Science and

Diversification and

Innovation

Advancement

Analytics

Development

Leverage technology

Expand our product

Evolution in intelligent

Deliver an advanced

automation and

as a competitive

base to offer a suite

digital experience for

analytical sciences to

advantage with

of financial solutions

our brand partners

drive incremental

continued innovation

that empowers

and consumers

insights, retention,

and a focus on reducing

today's consumers

and operating leverage

our cost to serve

Key Foundational Elements

Active risk management

Prudent balance sheet management

Disciplined expense management

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

18

Questions & Answers

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

Financial Measures

In addition to the results presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, the Company may present financial measures that are non‐GAAP measures, such as constant currency financial measures, pre‐provision earnings before taxes, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA, net of funding costs, core earnings and core earnings per diluted share (core EPS). Constant currency excludes the impact of fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. The Company calculates constant currency by converting our current period local currency financial results using the prior period exchange rates. The Company uses adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, net as an integral part of internal reporting to measure the performance and operational strength of reportable segments and to evaluate the performance of senior management. Adjusted EBITDA eliminates the uneven effect across all reportable segments of non‐cash depreciation of tangible assets and amortization of intangible assets, including certain intangible assets that were recognized in business combinations, and the non‐cash effect of stock compensation expense. In addition, adjusted EBITDA eliminates the effect of the gain (loss) on the sale of a business, strategic transaction costs, asset impairments, restructuring and other charges, and the loss on extinguishment of debt. Adjusted EBITDA, net is equal to adjusted EBITDA less securitization funding costs and interest expense on deposits. Similarly, core earnings and core EPS eliminate non‐cash or non‐operating items, including, but not limited to, stock compensation expense, amortization of purchased intangibles, non‐cash interest, gain (loss) on the sale of a business, strategic transaction costs, asset impairments, restructuring and other charges, and the loss on extinguishment of debt. The Company believes that these non‐GAAP financial measures, viewed in addition to and not in lieu of the Company's reported GAAP results, provide useful information to investors regarding the Company's performance and overall results of operations.

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

20

Appendix

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

21

Third Quarter 2020 Consolidated Results

(in millions, except per share)

3Q20

3Q19

% Change

Revenue

$1,050

$1,438

(27)%

Income from continuing operations

$133

$122

10%

Income from continuing operations per diluted share (EPS)

$2.79

$2.41

16%

Core EPS

$3.45

$5.05

(32)%

Adjusted EBITDA

$340

$481

(29)%

Adjusted EBITDA, net

$250

$367

(32)%

Pre‐Provision, earnings before taxes

$384

$462

(17)%

Diluted shares outstanding

47.8

50.4

**********************************************************************************

(Including discontinued operations)

Net income (loss)

$133

$(108)

nm

Net income (loss) per diluted share

$2.79

$(2.13)

nm

*nm= not meaningful

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

22

Key Business Metrics

3Q20

3Q19

3Q20 vs

2Q20

3Q20 vs

3Q19

2Q20

LoyaltyOne(in millions)

AIR MILES Reward Miles Issued

1,240

1,344

(8)%

1,053

18%

AIR MILES Reward Miles Redeemed

687

1,078

(36)%

608

13%

Card Services($ in millions)

Credit Sales

$6,152

$7,824

(21)%

$4,799

28%

Average Card Receivables

$15,300

$17,449

(12)%

$16,116

(5)%

Normalized Average Card Receivables 1

$15,356

$19,299

(20)%

$16,204

(5)%

End of Period Receivables

$15,599

$17,928

(13)%

$15,809

(1)%

Total Gross Yield % 2

22.5%

24.7%

(2.2)%

20.4%

2.1%

Operating Expense % 3

9.2%

8.7%

0.5%

9.1%

0.1%

Cost of Funds

2.4%

2.4%

%

2.5%

(0.1)%

Principal Loss Rate

5.8%

5.6%

0.2%

7.6%

(1.8)%

Reserve Rate

13.3%

5.9%

7.4%

13.3%

%

Delinquency Rate

4.7%

5.9%

(1.2)%

4.3%

0.4%

Return on Equity

14%

28%

(14)%

15%

(1)%

  1. Normalized card receivables includes held‐for‐sale receivables
  2. Revenue divided by normalized card receivables
  3. Excludes mark‐to‐market on held‐for‐sale receivables and asset impairment charges

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

23

Bank Capital Ratios

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

Combined Banks

Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio

15.9%

18.3%

18.8%

Tier 1 Capital Ratio

15.9%

18.3%

18.8%

Total Risk Based Capital Ratio

17.3%

19.7%

20.1%

Tier 1 Leverage Capital Ratio

12.8%

14.2%

16.1%

©2020 ADS Alliance Data Systems, Inc.

Confidential and Proprietary

24

Disclaimer

Alliance Data Systems Corporation published this content on 29 October 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 29 October 2020 13:44:07 UTC


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Financials (USD)
Sales 2020 4 475 M - -
Net income 2020 301 M - -
Net Debt 2020 5 042 M - -
P/E ratio 2020 12,3x
Yield 2020 1,45%
Capitalization 3 559 M 3 559 M -
EV / Sales 2020 1,92x
EV / Sales 2021 2,14x
Nbr of Employees 8 500
Free-Float 40,1%
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Technical analysis trends ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS CORPORATION
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TrendsBullishBullishNeutral
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 20
Average target price 67,06 $
Last Close Price 74,57 $
Spread / Highest target 20,7%
Spread / Average Target -10,1%
Spread / Lowest Target -53,1%
EPS Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
Ralph J Andretta President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Roger H. Ballou Chairman
Timothy P. King Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Laurie A. Tucker Independent Director
Timothy J. Theriault Independent Director
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