The formula is spot on, as hostile inroads are multiplying on all sides. The U.S. Department of Justice, which already secured a win in a four-year procedure and labeled Alphabet as a "monopolist" in the search market, is once again leading the charge—this time targeting the group's domination of the online advertising market.
 
Alphabet's legal team faces a tough battle ahead. Google controls 90% of the online advertising market, mainly through its AdX platform. In a leaked document, conveniently filed in the case, a Google employee compared this dominant position to "Goldman Sachs or Citigroup controlling the NYSE."
 
Last December, a Californian court condemned Alphabet for illegal practices aimed at securing dominance for its Android operating system, now installed on over two-thirds of the world's mobile phones. At the same time, the British competition authority has announced its own investigation, while the European regulator is preparing its response.
 
Adding to the pressure, advertisers, inspired by this combative climate, are beginning to file collective lawsuits against the tech giant. Yelp, the online review site, has launched the first salvo, and other advertisers feeling aggrieved are expected to follow. Experts predict Alphabet could face up to $100 billion in damages and penalties.
 
While comparisons can be misleading, the Bernstein analyst's analogy holds some weight. Just as the Roman Empire, pressed on all sides by barbarian invasions, split into two in an attempt to survive—its western half collapsing within a century while its eastern counterpart thrived for another millennium—Alphabet now faces intense external pressures.
 
A more grounded comparison might be drawn with Microsoft’s situation 25 years ago. Back then, Bill Gates' group came under heavy fire from regulators, accused of monopolizing the operating system and browser markets through Windows and Explorer. It was precisely this regulatory scrutiny that allowed Google to rise and dominate the search engine market.
 
Moreover, the initial verdict that threatened Microsoft with a Standard Oil-style breakup was overturned on appeal. While the worst was averted, shareholders endured a painful period of stagnation, with the stock flatlining for nearly 15 years—a scenario Alphabet shareholders would prefer to avoid.
 
Continuing with comparisons, we should also note that the U.S. Department of Justice's scrutiny coincided with the peak of the first speculative bubble in tech stocks. Superstitious investors may view this as a possible omen for the present.
 
Alphabet’s share price, weighed down by this precarious situation and a lack of earnings growth over the past three years, has now fallen to a valuation of twenty times earnings. This is a historical low, seen briefly during moments of crisis: the financial downturn of 2008-2012, the Covid panic in 2020, and last year’s legal troubles for the Mountain View group.
 
As a result, the stock has been added to the U.S. portfolio of MarketScreener, which has repeatedly taken advantage of such low points in the past and will be closely monitoring further developments.