Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings
November 7, 2024
Cautionary Statements
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In this presentation, Ameren has presented adjusted earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is included in this presentation. Generally, adjusted earnings or losses include earnings or losses attributable to Ameren common shareholders and exclude income or loss from significant discrete items that management does not consider representative of ongoing earnings, such as the cumulative impact of the first and third quarter 2024 charges for additional mitigation relief related to an agreement in principle to settle the New Source Review and Clean Air Act proceeding and a third quarter 2024 charge for customer refunds related to the FERC's October 2024 order on MISO's allowed base return on equity, both of which relate to proceedings that have been ongoing for over ten years. Ameren uses adjusted earnings internally for financial planning and for analysis of performance. Ameren also uses adjusted earnings as the primary performance measurement when communicating with analysts and investors regarding our earnings results and outlook, as the company believes that adjusted earnings allow the company to more accurately compare its ongoing performance across periods. In providing adjusted earnings guidance, there could be differences between adjusted earnings and earnings prepared in accordance with GAAP as a result of our treatment of certain items, such as those described above.
Forward-looking Statements
Statements in this presentation not based on historical facts are considered "forward-looking" and, accordingly, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Although such forward-looking statements have been made in good faith and are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that the expected results will be achieved. These statements include (without limitation) statements as to future expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, targets, estimates, strategies, objectives, events, conditions, and financial performance. In connection with the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Ameren is providing this cautionary statement to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. In addition to factors discussed in this presentation, Ameren's press release issued November 6, 2024, with respect to its third quarter 2024 earnings, Ameren's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and its other reports filed with the SEC under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, contain a list of factors and a discussion of risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations suggested in such "forward-looking" statements. All "forward-looking" statements included in this presentation are based upon information presently available, and Ameren, except to the extent required by the federal securities laws, undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any "forward-looking" statements to reflect new information or current events.
Earnings Guidance and Growth Expectations
In this presentation, Ameren has presented 2024 and 2025 earnings guidance effective as of November 6, 2024, as well as multi-year earnings per share growth expectations and multi- year rate base growth expectations that were effective as of February 23, 2024. Earnings guidance for 2024 assumes normal temperatures after September 2024 and earnings guidance for 2025 and multi-year growth expectations assume normal temperatures. Earnings guidance, multi-year growth expectations and estimates for long-term infrastructure investment opportunities are subject to the effects of, among other things: regulatory, judicial and legislative actions; energy center and energy distribution operations; energy, economic, capital and credit market conditions; customer usage; severe storms; market returns on COLI investments; unusual or otherwise unexpected gains or losses; and other risks and uncertainties
outlined, or referred to, in the Forward-looking Statements section of this presentation and in Ameren's periodic reports filed with the SEC.
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 2 |
Strategic and Business
Update
Marty Lyons
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corp.
Ameren Missouri's Montgomery
Community Solar Energy Center
Our Strategic Plan
INVEST ENHANCE OPTIMIZE
Invest in rate-regulated | Enhance regulatory | Optimize operating | ||
frameworks and advocate | ||||
energy infrastructure | performance | |||
for responsible policies | ||||
To capitalize on opportunities to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 4 |
Q3 Earnings Summary
- Consistent, experienced management team remains focused on safely executing strategic plan
- Key Q3 earnings variance drivers
Adjusted Diluted EPS2
2023 vs. 2024
- Earnings on increased infrastructure investments
- Lower adjusted operations and maintenance expenses1
- Higher interest expense at Ameren Parent
- Lower Ameren Missouri electric retail sales driven by milder weather
- Lower Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution return on equity
- Key variance drivers excluded from 2024 adjusted earnings2
- Charge related to agreement in principle to settle Rush Island Energy Center NSR and Clean Air Act proceeding
- Charge for FERC order on MISO's base ROE
1 Not subject to regulatory recovery mechanisms including riders and trackers. 2 See page 15 for GAAP to adjusted results reconciliation.
$1.87 $1.87
2023 2024
Third Quarter
$3.78 | $3.86 |
2023 | 2024 |
Nine Months
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 5 |
Strong Earnings Growth Expectations
- Expect 2024 adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.55 to $4.691, compared to our prior GAAP range of $4.52 to $4.72 per share
- Expect 2025 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.05
- Midpoint represents 7.1% EPS growth compared to 2024 adjusted guidance midpoint of $4.62
- Expect to update long-term earnings growth guidance and capital and financing plans in Feb. 2025
1 2024 GAAP EPS guidance range is now $4.34 to $4.48. See page 15 for GAAP to adjusted results reconciliation.
Diluted EPS Guidance1
$4.95 | |
$4.62 | |
~7% | |
2024 Adjusted | 2025 Guidance |
Guidance Midpoint | Midpoint |
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 6 |
Executing Our Strategy in 2024
Invest
- $3 billion of capital invested benefiting our customers and communities
- Significant infrastructure investment in electric, natural gas and transmission infrastructure projects
- Acquired 500 MW of solar generation; expected in service by end of year Enhance
- Constructive regulatory developments
- Ameren Transmission
- In Sep., MISO announced $3.6 billion of Tranche 2.1 investment in our Missouri and Illinois service territories; await determination if assigned or competitive
- Ameren Missouri
- In Oct., MoPSC approved CCN for 800-MW Castle Bluff Energy Center, including post-construction cost deferral
- In Nov., reached agreement in principle with DOJ to settle Rush Island NSR and Clean Air Act proceeding; subject to District Court approval
- Ameren Illinois
- In Oct., ALJ issued proposed order recommending ICC approval of revised electric distribution multi-year rate plan
Optimize
- Strong operational performance delivering safer, more reliable, and affordable energy
- Maintained disciplined cost management
- Missouri customer rates remain well below the national and Midwest averages1
1 According to Edison Electric Institute, "Typical Bills and Average Rates Report" as of Dec. 31, 2023.
Capital Expenditures
YTD Sep. 30, 2024
($ millions)
Ameren Illinois | Ameren Illinois |
Natural Gas | |
Electric | |
Distribution | $202 |
Ameren | |
$468 | Transmission |
$515 |
$1,839
Ameren
Missouri
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 7 |
Ameren Missouri New Generation Projects
Reliable, Affordable Energy Through a Cleaner Balanced Energy Portfolio
Energy | Generation | Agreement | Anticipated | |||
Facility Size | Developer | CCN Status | In-Service | |||
Center | Type | Type | ||||
Date | ||||||
Huck Finn1,2 | 200 MW | Solar | Build- | EDF | Approved Feb. | Q4 2024 |
transfer | Renewables | 2023 | ||||
Boomtown2,4 | 150 MW | Solar | Build- | Invenergy | Approved | Q4 2024 |
transfer | Renewables | Apr. 2023 | ||||
Cass | Development- | Savion / | Approved June | |||
150 MW | Solar | Ameren | Q4 2024 | |||
County2,3,4 | transfer3 | 2024 | ||||
Missouri | ||||||
Vandalia5 | 50 MW | Solar | Self-Build | Ameren | Approved Mar. | Q4 2025 |
Missouri | 2024 | |||||
Bowling | 50 MW | Solar | Self-Build | Ameren | Approved Mar. | Q1 2026 |
Green5 | Missouri | 2024 | ||||
Split Rail5 | 300 MW | Solar | Build-transfer | Invenergy | Approved Mar. | Mid-2026 |
Renewables | 2024 | |||||
Castle Bluff6 | 800 MW | Simple-Cycle | Self-Build | Ameren | Approved Oct. | Q4 2027 |
Gas | Missouri | 2024 | ||||
1 Will support Ameren Missouri's compliance with the Missouri Renewable Energy Standard. 2 These projects collectively represent acquisition costs of ~$0.9 billion. 3 Development-transfer project consists of taking ownership of a project prior to or during construction with additional capital expenditures expected. 4 Will support Ameren Missouri's Renewable Solutions program. 5 These projects collectively represent ~$0.8 billion of capital investment. 6 Represents ~$0.9 billion of capital investment.
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 8 |
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Projects
Enhancing Reliability and Lowering Customer Costs
- MISO proposed Tranche 2.1 projects estimated to cost $21.8 billion1; expect MISO approval Dec. 12, 2024
- Portfolio focuses on creating high-voltage transmission highways within the MISO region to maximize value based on land use, line distances, transfer levels, and costs
- Customer benefits in range of 1.3x to 5.6x portfolio cost
- Await determination if projects are assigned or competitive
- Competitive project process will span through 2026
- Expected in-service dates range from 2032 to 2034
Est. Cost1 | |||
ID | Projects Located in our Service Territories | ($s millions) | State |
37 | Maywood - Belleau - MRPD - Sioux - Bugle (345 kV) | $888 | MO |
41 | Woodford County - Fargo & Radbourn (345 kV) | $422 | IL |
40 | Sub T - Woodford County - Collins & Reynolds (765 kV) | $2,298 | IL |
Total | $3,608 | ||
- MISO to commence work on Tranche 2.2 portfolio in 2025
1 Reflects MISO's cost estimate as of Sep. 2024.
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 9 |
Robust Customer Growth Opportunities
Facilitating Growth in Our Region While Delivering Value for All Customers
- Robust pipeline of potential customers conducting formal engineering reviews of locations in our territory
- Attractive value proposition for new business
- Available sites with access to transmission, fiber, workforce and water
- Investing in a balanced generation portfolio to provide reliable, affordable and cleaner energy
- Ameren Missouri commercial and industrial rates are ~35% and ~10% below the national average, respectively1
- Robust state and local economic development incentives available, including those specific to data centers
- Expect substantial load growth resulting from 2024 agreements
-
Construction agreement executed for 250 MW data center; expected to be in-service by 2026;
~40% and ~5% annualized increase to Ameren Missouri's industrial and total MWh sales, respectively, upon full ramp-up expected by 2028 - Expansion commitments received or new contracts executed for ~100 MW of additional load from manufacturing, smaller data centers and other industries by 2028
-
Construction agreement executed for 250 MW data center; expected to be in-service by 2026;
- Currently expect to update Sep. 2023 IRP by Feb. 2025 following evaluation of potential load growth and generation portfolio
- Own sufficient generation to reliably serve customers currently under agreements
- Careful rate design and planning will create opportunity to deliver value for all customers
Expanding Economic Development Pipeline
Represents Tens of Thousands of MW
of Potential New Demand
Data Centers
Manufacturing
Other
~350 MW of additional load
under agreements
1 According to EEI Typical Bills and Average Rates Report as of Dec. 31, 2023.
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings | Nov. 7, 2024 | 10 |
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Ameren Corporation published this content on November 06, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on November 06, 2024 at 22:29:22.563.